Chiangrai United 1-2 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Prachuap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chiangrai United and Prachuap meet at Singha Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chiangrai United have collected 1.67 PPG across 3 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 2D 0L. Last five: D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.33 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangrai United's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 0L across 3 games at Singha Stadium this term (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Prachuap's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games (0.67 PPG). Last five: D L D. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Chiangrai United's favour (1.67 vs 0.67) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Prachuap in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Chiangrai United half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Prachuap half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangrai United 67% and Prachuap 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Chiangrai United 67% | Prachuap 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.75 xG and Prachuap 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.996 / defence 1.228 | Prachuap attack 0.908 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.129. Prachuap bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing Chiangrai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Chiangrai United games / 3 Prachuap games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 46% | Draw 30% | Prachuap 25%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Prachuap 4.00. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 67% | Prachuap 100% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Singha Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 46% | Draw 30% | Prachuap 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Chiangrai United 1.75 / Prachuap 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.996 / def 1.228 | Prachuap attack 0.908 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Prachuap xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Prachuap kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Singha Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Prachuap?
Chiangrai United 1 - 2 Prachuap.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Singha Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Prachuap part of?
Chiangrai United vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 46% chance of winning, Prachuap a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Chiangrai United and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Prachuap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chiangrai United and Prachuap in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-W-D. Prachuap (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chiangrai United's attack at 1.00x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (0.91x) against Chiangrai United's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
46%
2.19
30%
3.36
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
3.00
1.26
Prachuap xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
4%
23.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.26 for Prachuap, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Chiangrai United have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 1W 2D 0L record — D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Prachuap's form line: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games, 0.67 PPG, last five D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Chiangrai United are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Prachuap.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.67 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Prachuap in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Early Season
Prachuap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 games (1.67 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 (0.67 PPG).
Have Chiangrai United or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Prachuap in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chiangrai United have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Prachuap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Chiangrai United
2
Draws
5
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 3, Prachuap have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Prachuap 3-2 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chiangrai United see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Chiangrai United, 100% for Prachuap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Chiangrai United and 100% for Prachuap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Chiangrai United's games and 100% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chiangrai United vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Chiangrai United's matches and 100% of Prachuap's.
Do Chiangrai United and Prachuap tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Prachuap defy the odds to beat Chiangrai United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Chiangrai United 1-2 at Singha Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.75 xG and Prachuap 1.26 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 1.00 / defence 1.23 against Prachuap attack 0.91 / defence 1.29, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 46% | Draw 30% | Prachuap 25%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Prachuap win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 67%, Prachuap 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Prachuap's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Prachuap winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Prachuap conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.