Chiangrai United 1-0 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Police Tero fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
LEO Chiangrai Stadium plays host to Chiangrai United versus Police Tero in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 14 August 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chiangrai United have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Chiangrai United haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Chiangrai United have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Police Tero's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Police Tero haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Police Tero have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Chiangrai United, 1.30 for Police Tero — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chiangrai United lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Chiangrai United half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Police Tero half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 43% versus Police Tero 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 47% | Police Tero 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.26 xG and Police Tero 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.923 / defence 1.014 | Police Tero attack 0.967 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.068. Data: 30 Chiangrai United games / 30 Police Tero games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 41% | Draw 28% | Police Tero 31%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Police Tero 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 30% | Police Tero 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: LEO Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 41% | Draw 28% | Police Tero 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Chiangrai United 1.26 / Police Tero 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.923 / def 1.014 | Police Tero attack 0.967 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Police Tero xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Police Tero kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Police Tero kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Police Tero?
Chiangrai United 1 - 0 Police Tero.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Police Tero part of?
Chiangrai United vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 41% chance of winning, Police Tero a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Chiangrai United and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Police Tero?
Record (2 meetings): Chiangrai United 0W | Draws 1 | Police Tero 1W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Police Tero in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Chiangrai United (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chiangrai United's attack at 0.92x the league average against Police Tero's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Police Tero's attack (0.97x) against Chiangrai United's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
41%
2.43
28%
3.55
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.31
1.05
Police Tero xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.05 for Police Tero, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Police Tero?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 13W 8D 9L from 30 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-W in the last five. Chiangrai United haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Police Tero, meanwhile, have gone 8W 13D 9L across 30 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. Police Tero haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Chiangrai United against 1.23 for Police Tero. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Chiangrai United have managed 4W 5D 6L from 15 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.57 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Police Tero's away record stands at 3W 6D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.10 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Pre-Season
Police Tero
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 13W 8D 9L in their last 30 games (1.57 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 8W 13D 9L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Police Tero away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.13 PPG; Police Tero away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Police Tero been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Police Tero in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chiangrai United have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Police Tero — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Chiangrai United
2
Draws
3
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Police Tero?
From 6 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 1, Police Tero have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Police Tero 0-0 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Police Tero?
Police Tero have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chiangrai United see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 40%, Police Tero 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Chiangrai United) and 47% (Police Tero).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 47% of games; Police Tero in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Police Tero?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 53% of Police Tero's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 47% of Police Tero's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Police Tero tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out Police Tero 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Police Tero 1-0 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.26 xG and Police Tero 1.05 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Police Tero landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.92 / defence 1.01 against Police Tero attack 0.97 / defence 0.94, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 41% | Draw 28% | Police Tero 31%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 47%, Police Tero 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Police Tero's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.57 PPG, Police Tero 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Police Tero (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.