Chiangrai United 1-1 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 16 as Chiangrai United welcome Lamphun Warrior to LEO Chiangrai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 January 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangrai United stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's home record at LEO Chiangrai Stadium: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Chiangrai United are significantly better at LEO Chiangrai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Lamphun Warrior — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 4L across 9 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Chiangrai United) versus 1.20 (Lamphun Warrior). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Chiangrai United have won 1, Lamphun Warrior 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Chiangrai United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 67% versus Lamphun Warrior 27%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chiangrai United 40% | Lamphun Warrior 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.46 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 1.152 / defence 0.839 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.685 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.199. Data: 45 Chiangrai United games / 15 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 55% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 17%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Lamphun Warrior 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Chiangrai United (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 60% | Lamphun Warrior 22% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: LEO Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 55% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 39% | xG Chiangrai United 1.46 / Lamphun Warrior 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 1.152 / def 0.839 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.685 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Lamphun Warrior xG
39%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Chiangrai United 1 - 1 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 55% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (1 meetings): Chiangrai United 1W | Draws 0 | Lamphun Warrior 0W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Lamphun Warrior's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
55%
1.81
28%
3.63
17%
5.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.14
0.69
Lamphun Warrior xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
5.81
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
28%
3.60
4%
24.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 11.7 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 0.69 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 6W 5D 4L from 15 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 8L across 15 games — 0.87 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chiangrai United by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamphun Warrior heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chiangrai United have managed 5W 2D 0L from 7 games — 2.43 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Chiangrai United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 2W 2D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 0.60 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Lamphun Warrior in 27%.
Last 15 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 6W 5D 4L in their last 15 games (1.53 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 3W 4D 8L in their last 15 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Chiangrai United's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 2.43 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Lamphun Warrior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lamphun Warrior in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Chiangrai United
3
Draws
3
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 2, Lamphun Warrior have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 0-0 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 57%, Lamphun Warrior 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Chiangrai United and 29% for Lamphun Warrior.
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 29% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 29% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.46 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.69 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 1.15 / defence 0.84 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.69 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 55% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 17%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 40%, Lamphun Warrior 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.