Chiangrai United 0-4 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bangkok United at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Chiangrai United welcome Bangkok United to Singha Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chiangrai United — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 2W 2D 2L at Singha Stadium — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bangkok United stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Chiangrai United) versus 2.00 (Bangkok United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Bangkok United in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangrai United 60% and Bangkok United 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 60% | Bangkok United 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.02 xG and Bangkok United 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.846 / defence 1.127 | Bangkok United attack 0.863 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.047 / away 1.313. Data: 10 Chiangrai United games / 10 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 30% | Draw 28% | Bangkok United 42%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Bangkok United 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bangkok United at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bangkok United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chiangrai United 50% | Bangkok United 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Singha Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 30% | Draw 28% | Bangkok United 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Chiangrai United 1.02 / Bangkok United 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.846 / def 1.127 | Bangkok United attack 0.863 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.047 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Bangkok United xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Singha Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United?
Chiangrai United 0 - 4 Bangkok United.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at Singha Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United part of?
Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 30% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Chiangrai United and Bangkok United will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Bangkok United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chiangrai United and Bangkok United in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Bangkok United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chiangrai United's attack at 0.85x the league average against Bangkok United's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bangkok United's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
30%
3.36
28%
3.56
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.30
1.28
Bangkok United xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
8%
12.05
15%
6.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.28 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Chiangrai United have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 5W 2D 3L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bangkok United's form line: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chiangrai United on 1.70 PPG, Bangkok United on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chiangrai United have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bangkok United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 1.40 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Bangkok United in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Bangkok United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 games (1.70 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Bangkok United away?
Bangkok United's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.40 PPG; Bangkok United away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Bangkok United won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Bangkok United specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Chiangrai United
1
Draws
8
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Bangkok United?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 1, Bangkok United have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Bangkok United last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Chiangrai United 2-0 Bangkok United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chiangrai United see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bangkok United see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 40%, Bangkok United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Chiangrai United) and 60% (Bangkok United).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Bangkok United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 60% of Bangkok United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Bangkok United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 60% of Bangkok United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Bangkok United run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Chiangrai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bangkok United beat Chiangrai United 0-4 at Singha Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.02 xG and Bangkok United 1.28 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Chiangrai United fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bangkok United outscored their 1.28 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.85 / defence 1.13 against Bangkok United attack 0.86 / defence 1.16, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 30% | Draw 28% | Bangkok United 42%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 60%, Bangkok United 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Bangkok United's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.70 PPG, Bangkok United 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bangkok United win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bangkok United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.