Chiangmai United 1-2 Suphanburi – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Suphanburi at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangmai United vs Suphanburi encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Chiangmai United and Suphanburi meet at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 2 February 2022 at 11:00 UTC.

Current Form

Chiangmai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chiangmai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Chiangmai United have gone 0W 1D 7L this season (8 games, 0.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Suphanburi have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Suphanburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Suphanburi have posted 2W 1D 6L from 9 away outings — 0.78 PPG. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Suphanburi are 0.70 PPG clear of Chiangmai United in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (0.90 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chiangmai United lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Chiangmai United — key trading statistics (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 47% of games.

Suphanburi — key trading statistics (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangmai United 53% versus Suphanburi 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangmai United 47% | Suphanburi 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangmai United 0.92 xG and Suphanburi 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangmai United attack 0.708 / defence 1.592 | Suphanburi attack 0.753 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.004 / away 1.116. Chiangmai United's attack strength of 0.708 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Suphanburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Chiangmai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Chiangmai United games / 17 Suphanburi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chiangmai United 26% | Draw 28% | Suphanburi 46%. Fair-value odds: Chiangmai United 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Suphanburi 2.17. Suphanburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Suphanburi are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suphanburi if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chiangmai United 50% | Suphanburi 56%.

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