Buriram United 1-2 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Buriram United at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Prachuap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Prachuap travel to Chang Arena to take on Buriram United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 February 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Buriram United — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Chang Arena, Buriram United have gone 7W 2D 0L this season (9 games, 2.56 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 9 home games (78%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chang Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.56 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Buriram United are significantly better at Chang Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's away record: 3W 1D 5L from 9 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.11 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Buriram United are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Buriram United, 0 for Prachuap and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Buriram United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Buriram United trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Prachuap trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 26% versus Prachuap 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 37% | Prachuap 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.65 xG and Prachuap 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.195 / defence 0.785 | Prachuap attack 0.940 / defence 1.366. League average goals — home 1.009 / away 1.120. Prachuap bring a strong defensive rating of 1.366 — this is suppressing Buriram United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Buriram United's defence rating of 0.785 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 19 Buriram United games / 19 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 57% | Draw 24% | Prachuap 19%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Prachuap 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 22% | Prachuap 56% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 57% | Draw 24% | Prachuap 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG Buriram United 1.65 / Prachuap 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.195 / def 0.785 | Prachuap attack 0.940 / def 1.366 | league avg home 1.009 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Prachuap xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Prachuap kick off?
Buriram United vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Prachuap?
Buriram United 1 - 2 Prachuap.
Where is Buriram United vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Prachuap part of?
Buriram United vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 57% chance of winning, Prachuap a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Buriram United and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Prachuap?
Record (1 meetings): Buriram United 1W | Draws 0 | Prachuap 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Prachuap in?
Buriram United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Prachuap (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Buriram United's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.09
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.47
0.83
Prachuap xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
4%
27.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.83 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Prachuap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Buriram United's recent record stands at 13W 3D 3L from 19 games, a 2.21 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 11L across 19 games — 0.74 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 1.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Prachuap heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Buriram United have managed 7W 2D 0L from 9 games — 2.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Prachuap's away record stands at 3W 1D 5L across 9 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Buriram United are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 0.89 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 13W 3D 3L in their last 19 games (2.21 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 3W 5D 11L in their last 19 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Prachuap away?
Buriram United's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.56 PPG; Prachuap away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Prachuap in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Buriram United won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Buriram United's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Buriram United
1
Draws
1
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 8, Prachuap have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Prachuap 1-1 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Prachuap?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Buriram United see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 22%, Prachuap 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Buriram United) and 56% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 78% of their matches; Prachuap in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Buriram United's recent matches and 56% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Buriram United's recent games and 56% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Prachuap defy the odds to beat Buriram United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Buriram United 1-2 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.65 xG and Prachuap 0.83 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Prachuap outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.20 / defence 0.79 against Prachuap attack 0.94 / defence 1.37, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 57% | Draw 24% | Prachuap 19%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Prachuap win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 37%, Prachuap 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Prachuap's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 0.74. Form was overturned, with Prachuap winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.