Buriram United 1-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Chiangrai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Buriram United welcome Chiangrai United to Chang Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 6 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Buriram United — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Buriram United have posted 7W 1D 2L at Chang Arena — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chang Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangrai United stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Buriram United have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Buriram United's 30% rate and Chiangrai United's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Buriram United, 0 for Chiangrai United and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Buriram United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Buriram United 30% | Chiangrai United 37%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 41% | Chiangrai United 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.12 xG and Chiangrai United 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.100 / defence 0.924 | Chiangrai United attack 0.804 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 1.090. Data: 27 Buriram United games / 27 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 41% | Draw 35% | Chiangrai United 24%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Chiangrai United 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 30% | Chiangrai United 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 41% | Draw 35% | Chiangrai United 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Buriram United 1.12 / Chiangrai United 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.100 / def 0.924 | Chiangrai United attack 0.804 / def 1.036 | league avg home 0.988 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Chiangrai United xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Buriram United vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:30 on Wednesday 6 April 2022 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Chiangrai United?
Buriram United 1 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Buriram United vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Chiangrai United part of?
Buriram United vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 41% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Buriram United and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Chiangrai United?
Record (1 meetings): Buriram United 1W | Draws 0 | Chiangrai United 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Chiangrai United in?
Buriram United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Chiangrai United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Buriram United's attack at 1.10x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
41%
2.44
35%
2.88
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Buriram United xG
Total xG
1.94
0.81
Chiangrai United xG
2.44
41%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
8%
12.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 11.7 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.81 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Buriram United come into this having played 27 games, going 18W 4D 5L for 2.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.56 PPG from 27 outings (12W 6D 9L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Buriram United's home form reads 10W 1D 2L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 2.00 points per game from 13 outings (8W 2D 3L). That's actually stronger than their 1.56 PPG overall record — Chiangrai United travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Buriram United are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.59 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.04 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; Chiangrai United in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 18W 4D 5L in their last 27 games (2.15 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 12W 6D 9L in their last 27 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Chiangrai United away?
Buriram United's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.38 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Buriram United have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2025, when Buriram United won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Buriram United's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Buriram United
2
Draws
0
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Chiangrai United?
From 10 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 8, Chiangrai United have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Buriram United 8-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Chiangrai United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 38%, Chiangrai United 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Buriram United) and 38% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Buriram United's recent matches and 38% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Buriram United's recent games and 38% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Buriram United and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Buriram United and Chiangrai United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United and Chiangrai United finished level at 1-1 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.12 xG and Chiangrai United 0.81 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.10 / defence 0.92 against Chiangrai United attack 0.80 / defence 1.04, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 41% | Draw 35% | Chiangrai United 24%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 41%, Chiangrai United 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.