Buriram United 0-1 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs BG Pathum United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Buriram United host BG Pathum United at Chang Arena in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United at Chang Arena this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chang Arena.
BG Pathum United — All Games: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BG Pathum United away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Buriram United are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Buriram United, 1 for BG Pathum United and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with BG Pathum United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Buriram United in-play tendencies (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BG Pathum United in-play tendencies (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 32% versus BG Pathum United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 44% | BG Pathum United 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.35 xG and BG Pathum United 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.254 / defence 0.914 | BG Pathum United attack 1.065 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 0.962 / away 1.105. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 1.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 25 Buriram United games / 25 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 41% | Draw 30% | BG Pathum United 28%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | BG Pathum United 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 40% | BG Pathum United 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 41% | Draw 30% | BG Pathum United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Buriram United 1.35 / BG Pathum United 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.254 / def 0.914 | BG Pathum United attack 1.065 / def 1.118 | league avg home 0.962 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.07
BG Pathum United xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Buriram United vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs BG Pathum United?
Buriram United 0 - 1 BG Pathum United.
Where is Buriram United vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs BG Pathum United part of?
Buriram United vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 41% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Buriram United and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and BG Pathum United?
Record (1 meetings): Buriram United 0W | Draws 0 | BG Pathum United 1W.
What form are Buriram United and BG Pathum United in?
Buriram United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. BG Pathum United (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Buriram United's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against BG Pathum United's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, BG Pathum United's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.29
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.42
1.07
BG Pathum United xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
7%
13.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Buriram United and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.07 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Buriram United's recent record stands at 18W 3D 4L from 25 games, a 2.28 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 4L across 25 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over BG Pathum United heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Buriram United have managed 10W 2D 1L from 13 games — 2.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BG Pathum United's away record stands at 4W 7D 2L across 13 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Buriram United are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.40 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; BG Pathum United in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 18W 3D 4L in their last 25 games (2.28 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 12W 9D 4L in their last 25 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or BG Pathum United away?
Buriram United's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.46 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Buriram United or BG Pathum United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, BG Pathum United in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Buriram United and BG Pathum United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Buriram United's record when hosting BG Pathum United specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Buriram United
4
Draws
3
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and BG Pathum United?
From 10 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 3, BG Pathum United have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when BG Pathum United 1-3 Buriram United.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 38%, BG Pathum United 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Buriram United) and 46% (BG Pathum United).
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; BG Pathum United in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play BG Pathum United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Buriram United's recent matches and 62% of BG Pathum United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Buriram United's recent games and 46% of BG Pathum United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Buriram United and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as BG Pathum United defy the odds to beat Buriram United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Buriram United 0-1 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.35 xG and BG Pathum United 1.07 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Buriram United fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.25 / defence 0.91 against BG Pathum United attack 1.06 / defence 1.12, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 41% | Draw 30% | BG Pathum United 28%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual BG Pathum United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 44%, BG Pathum United 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.80. Form was overturned, with BG Pathum United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.