BG Pathum United 2-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates BG Pathum United at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this BG Pathum United vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BG Stadium plays host to BG Pathum United versus Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 18 February 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
BG Pathum United (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BG Pathum United at BG Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — BG Pathum United are significantly better at BG Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Prachuap's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Prachuap have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for BG Pathum United against 1.00 for Prachuap. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: BG Pathum United 1W, Prachuap 0W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
BG Pathum United — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Prachuap — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 47% versus Prachuap 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 51% | Prachuap 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.97 xG and Prachuap 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 1.073 / defence 0.965 | Prachuap attack 1.085 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.161. Prachuap bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing BG Pathum United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 BG Pathum United games / 49 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 54% | Draw 25% | Prachuap 22%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Prachuap 4.55. BG Pathum United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates BG Pathum United as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BG Pathum United 50% | Prachuap 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: BG Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 54% | Draw 25% | Prachuap 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG BG Pathum United 1.97 / Prachuap 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 1.073 / def 0.965 | Prachuap attack 1.085 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Prachuap xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BG Pathum United vs Prachuap kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at BG Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Prachuap?
BG Pathum United 2 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at BG Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Prachuap part of?
BG Pathum United vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 54% chance of winning, Prachuap a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both BG Pathum United and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will BG Pathum United vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Prachuap?
Record (3 meetings): BG Pathum United 1W | Draws 2 | Prachuap 0W.
What form are BG Pathum United and Prachuap in?
BG Pathum United (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Prachuap (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from BG Pathum United's attack rating (1.07) and Prachuap's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (1.08x) against BG Pathum United's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
54%
1.87
25%
4.07
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
3.19
1.22
Prachuap xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
14%
7.18
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
3%
32.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 1.22 for Prachuap, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, BG Pathum United have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 24W 13D 12L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap's form line: 13W 12D 24L from 49 games, 1.04 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, BG Pathum United are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Prachuap.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, BG Pathum United have posted 2.33 PPG from 24 outings (18W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — BG Pathum United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Prachuap have gone 6W 4D 14L from 24 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BG Pathum United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.14 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BG Pathum United and Prachuap in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 24W 13D 12L in their last 49 games (1.73 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 13W 12D 24L in their last 49 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BG Pathum United at home or Prachuap away?
BG Pathum United's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BG Pathum United at home: 2.33 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.92 PPG.
Have BG Pathum United or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Prachuap in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BG Pathum United won 7-2 on 6 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BG Pathum United have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Prachuap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BG Pathum United
6
Draws
0
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, BG Pathum United have won 4, Prachuap have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when BG Pathum United 3-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Prachuap?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BG Pathum United 46%, Prachuap 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for BG Pathum United and 67% for Prachuap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Prachuap in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BG Pathum United play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 62% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BG Pathum United vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of BG Pathum United's matches and 67% of Prachuap's.
Do BG Pathum United and Prachuap tend to score early?
BG Pathum United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BG Pathum United edge out Prachuap 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Prachuap 2-1 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.97 xG and Prachuap 1.22 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.07 / defence 0.96 against Prachuap attack 1.08 / defence 1.28, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 54% | Draw 25% | Prachuap 22%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 51%, Prachuap 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Prachuap's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.