BG Pathum United 7-2 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BG Pathum United at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this BG Pathum United vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BG Stadium plays host to BG Pathum United versus Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Wednesday 6 April 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
BG Pathum United (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BG Pathum United at BG Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Prachuap's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Prachuap have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for BG Pathum United against 1.90 for Prachuap. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: BG Pathum United 0W, Prachuap 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
BG Pathum United — key trading statistics (25 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Prachuap — key trading statistics (25 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 52% versus Prachuap 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 44% | Prachuap 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.38 xG and Prachuap 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 1.218 / defence 1.021 | Prachuap attack 0.888 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 0.933 / away 1.076. Prachuap bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing BG Pathum United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 BG Pathum United games / 25 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 44% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 25%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Prachuap 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates BG Pathum United as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BG Pathum United 40% | Prachuap 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: BG Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 44% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG BG Pathum United 1.38 / Prachuap 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 1.218 / def 1.021 | Prachuap attack 0.888 / def 1.210 | league avg home 0.933 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Prachuap xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BG Pathum United vs Prachuap kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 6 April 2022 at BG Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Prachuap?
BG Pathum United 7 - 2 Prachuap.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at BG Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Prachuap part of?
BG Pathum United vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 44% chance of winning, Prachuap a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both BG Pathum United and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will BG Pathum United vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Prachuap?
Record (1 meetings): BG Pathum United 0W | Draws 1 | Prachuap 0W.
What form are BG Pathum United and Prachuap in?
BG Pathum United (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Prachuap (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from BG Pathum United's attack rating (1.22) and Prachuap's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (0.89x) against BG Pathum United's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 27/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
44%
2.26
31%
3.22
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
2.35
0.97
Prachuap xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
6%
15.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 0.97 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, BG Pathum United have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 13W 8D 4L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap's form line: 8W 6D 11L from 25 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, BG Pathum United are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Prachuap.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, BG Pathum United have posted 2.27 PPG from 11 outings (8W 1D 2L).
On the road, Prachuap have gone 4W 2D 5L from 11 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BG Pathum United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 0.96 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BG Pathum United and Prachuap in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 13W 8D 4L in their last 25 games (1.88 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 8W 6D 11L in their last 25 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BG Pathum United at home or Prachuap away?
BG Pathum United's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BG Pathum United at home: 2.27 PPG; Prachuap away: 1.27 PPG.
Have BG Pathum United or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Prachuap in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BG Pathum United won 7-2 on 6 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BG Pathum United have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Prachuap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BG Pathum United
6
Draws
0
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, BG Pathum United have won 4, Prachuap have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when BG Pathum United 3-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Prachuap?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BG Pathum United 46%, Prachuap 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (BG Pathum United) and 54% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Prachuap in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BG Pathum United play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 54% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BG Pathum United vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of BG Pathum United's recent games and 54% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BG Pathum United and Prachuap tend to score early?
BG Pathum United have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BG Pathum United run riot with a 7-2 hammering of Prachuap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Prachuap 7-2 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.38 xG and Prachuap 0.97 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 7-2 for 9 actual goals. BG Pathum United beat their projection by 5.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Prachuap outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.22 / defence 1.02 against Prachuap attack 0.89 / defence 1.21, drawn from 27/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 44% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 25%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 44%, Prachuap 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (25 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Prachuap's trading profile (25 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 7 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.