BG Pathum United 0-2 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BG Pathum United at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
LEO Stadium plays host to BG Pathum United versus Chiangrai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Wednesday 6 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
BG Pathum United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games (2.33 PPG). Last five: D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 0.67 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. BG Pathum United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangrai United have collected 1.60 PPG across 5 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 1L. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.73 in BG Pathum United's favour (2.33 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — BG Pathum United have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Chiangrai United in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
BG Pathum United half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Chiangrai United half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BG Pathum United 67% and Chiangrai United 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 33% | Chiangrai United 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.60 xG and Chiangrai United 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 1.113 / defence 1.030 | Chiangrai United attack 1.076 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.316. Chiangrai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing BG Pathum United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 BG Pathum United games / 5 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 38% | Draw 30% | Chiangrai United 32%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Chiangrai United 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BG Pathum United at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BG Pathum United 67% | Chiangrai United 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: LEO Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 38% | Draw 30% | Chiangrai United 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 64% | xG BG Pathum United 1.60 / Chiangrai United 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 1.113 / def 1.030 | Chiangrai United attack 1.076 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Chiangrai United xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 6 October 2021 at LEO Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United?
BG Pathum United 0 - 2 Chiangrai United.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at LEO Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United part of?
BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 38% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both BG Pathum United and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Chiangrai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BG Pathum United and Chiangrai United in?
BG Pathum United (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-W. Chiangrai United (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates BG Pathum United's attack at 1.11x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (1.08x) against BG Pathum United's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 3/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
38%
2.63
30%
3.33
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
3.05
1.46
Chiangrai United xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
9%
11.31
6%
15.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 1.46 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
BG Pathum United come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 1D 0L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W. It's still early in the season for BG Pathum United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
BG Pathum United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BG Pathum United have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Chiangrai United in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BG Pathum United and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have BG Pathum United or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BG Pathum United have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BG Pathum United
2
Draws
4
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Chiangrai United?
From 10 meetings on record, BG Pathum United have won 4, Chiangrai United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when BG Pathum United 2-2 Chiangrai United.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chiangrai United see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for BG Pathum United, 67% for Chiangrai United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (BG Pathum United) and 67% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 33%; Chiangrai United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BG Pathum United play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of BG Pathum United's games and 67% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of BG Pathum United's recent games and 67% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BG Pathum United and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
BG Pathum United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chiangrai United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over BG Pathum United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat BG Pathum United 0-2 at LEO Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.60 xG and Chiangrai United 1.46 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. BG Pathum United fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.11 / defence 1.03 against Chiangrai United attack 1.08 / defence 1.21, drawn from 3/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 38% | Draw 30% | Chiangrai United 32%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Chiangrai United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 33%, Chiangrai United 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Chiangrai United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. BG Pathum United managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chiangrai United conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.