BG Pathum United 4-1 Chiangmai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BG Pathum United at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BG Pathum United vs Chiangmai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chiangmai United make the trip to BG Stadium to face BG Pathum United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 January 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Current Form
BG Pathum United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BG Pathum United's home record at BG Stadium: 6W 1D 2L from 9 Thai League 1 appearances (2.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.11 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — BG Pathum United are significantly better at BG Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chiangmai United have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Chiangmai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangmai United's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 5L across 9 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward BG Pathum United. A 1.20 PPG lead over Chiangmai United (1.40 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: BG Pathum United 1W, Chiangmai United 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 3–1 with BG Pathum United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
BG Pathum United — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Chiangmai United — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 41% versus Chiangmai United 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 35% | Chiangmai United 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.31 xG and Chiangmai United 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 0.905 / defence 1.047 | Chiangmai United attack 0.864 / defence 1.445. League average goals — home 0.999 / away 1.119. Chiangmai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.445 — this is suppressing BG Pathum United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 BG Pathum United games / 17 Chiangmai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 43% | Draw 28% | Chiangmai United 29%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Chiangmai United 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates BG Pathum United as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: BG Pathum United 33% | Chiangmai United 56% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Chiangmai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: BG Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jan 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 43% | Draw 28% | Chiangmai United 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG BG Pathum United 1.31 / Chiangmai United 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 0.905 / def 1.047 | Chiangmai United attack 0.864 / def 1.445 | league avg home 0.999 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Chiangmai United xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BG Pathum United vs Chiangmai United kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Chiangmai United kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 29 January 2022 at BG Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Chiangmai United?
BG Pathum United 4 - 1 Chiangmai United.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Chiangmai United being played?
The match is being played at BG Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Chiangmai United part of?
BG Pathum United vs Chiangmai United is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Chiangmai United?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 43% chance of winning, Chiangmai United a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Chiangmai United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both BG Pathum United and Chiangmai United will score (BTTS).
Will BG Pathum United vs Chiangmai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Chiangmai United?
Record (1 meetings): BG Pathum United 1W | Draws 0 | Chiangmai United 0W.
What form are BG Pathum United and Chiangmai United in?
BG Pathum United (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Chiangmai United (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
BG Pathum United's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Chiangmai United's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Chiangmai United's attack (0.86x) against BG Pathum United's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 18/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.59
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
2.32
1.01
Chiangmai United xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
8%
12.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Chiangmai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Chiangmai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 1.01 for Chiangmai United, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Chiangmai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, BG Pathum United have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 8W 5D 4L record — L-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chiangmai United's form line: 1W 4D 12L from 17 games, 0.41 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Chiangmai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, BG Pathum United are the form team by 1.30 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chiangmai United.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, BG Pathum United have posted 2.11 PPG from 9 outings (6W 1D 2L).
On the road, Chiangmai United have gone 1W 3D 5L from 9 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BG Pathum United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Chiangmai United are on 0.76 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Blended
Chiangmai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BG Pathum United and Chiangmai United in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 8W 5D 4L in their last 17 games (1.71 PPG), while Chiangmai United have gone 1W 4D 12L in their last 17 (0.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BG Pathum United at home or Chiangmai United away?
BG Pathum United's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BG Pathum United at home: 2.11 PPG; Chiangmai United away: 0.67 PPG.
Have BG Pathum United or Chiangmai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Chiangmai United in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
BG Pathum United
0
Draws
0
Chiangmai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Chiangmai United?
From 2 meetings on record, BG Pathum United have won 2, Chiangmai United have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Chiangmai United last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2022, when BG Pathum United 4-1 Chiangmai United.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Chiangmai United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Chiangmai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BG Pathum United 33%, Chiangmai United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (BG Pathum United) and 56% (Chiangmai United).
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Chiangmai United in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Chiangmai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BG Pathum United play Chiangmai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 56% of Chiangmai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BG Pathum United vs Chiangmai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of BG Pathum United's recent games and 56% of Chiangmai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BG Pathum United and Chiangmai United tend to score early?
BG Pathum United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Chiangmai United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BG Pathum United run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Chiangmai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Chiangmai United 4-1 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.31 xG and Chiangmai United 1.01 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. BG Pathum United beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 0.91 / defence 1.05 against Chiangmai United attack 0.86 / defence 1.45, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 43% | Draw 28% | Chiangmai United 29%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 35%, Chiangmai United 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Chiangmai United's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.41. Form held, and they took the win. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Chiangmai United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.