Bangkok United 0-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bangkok United at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ratchaburi make the trip to Thammasat Stadium to face Bangkok United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Wednesday 19 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bangkok United have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bangkok United at Thammasat Stadium this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Bangkok United's favour (2.60 vs 2.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bangkok United lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Bangkok United — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bangkok United 47% versus Ratchaburi 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bangkok United 45% | Ratchaburi 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bangkok United 1.73 xG and Ratchaburi 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bangkok United attack 1.515 / defence 0.990 | Ratchaburi attack 0.983 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.140. Bangkok United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.515 — their λ of 1.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Bangkok United games / 38 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bangkok United 52% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 24%. Fair-value odds: Bangkok United 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Ratchaburi 4.17. Bangkok United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bangkok United are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bangkok United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Bangkok United 60% | Ratchaburi 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Thammasat Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bangkok United 52% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Bangkok United 1.73 / Ratchaburi 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Bangkok United attack 1.515 / def 0.990 | Ratchaburi attack 0.983 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Bangkok United xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Ratchaburi xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 19 October 2022 at Thammasat Stadium.
What was the final score in Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi?
Bangkok United 0 - 1 Ratchaburi.
Where is Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Thammasat Stadium.
What competition is Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Bangkok United a 52% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bangkok United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Ratchaburi?
Record (2 meetings): Bangkok United 1W | Draws 1 | Ratchaburi 0W.
What form are Bangkok United and Ratchaburi in?
Bangkok United (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bangkok United's attack rating (1.51) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (0.98x) against Bangkok United's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
52%
1.92
24%
4.22
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Bangkok United xG
Total xG
2.84
1.11
Ratchaburi xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
4%
23.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Bangkok United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Bangkok United and 1.11 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Bangkok United have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 21W 10D 7L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi's form line: 14W 11D 13L from 38 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ratchaburi.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bangkok United have posted 2.33 PPG from 18 outings (12W 6D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — Bangkok United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 4W 5D 9L from 18 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bangkok United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bangkok United are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.08 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Bangkok United have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bangkok United
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bangkok United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Bangkok United have gone 21W 10D 7L in their last 38 games (1.92 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 14W 11D 13L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bangkok United at home or Ratchaburi away?
Bangkok United's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bangkok United at home: 2.33 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Bangkok United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bangkok United have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 1-4 on 18 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bangkok United have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bangkok United
2
Draws
2
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Bangkok United have won 6, Ratchaburi have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bangkok United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bangkok United 1-4 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Bangkok United and Ratchaburi?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bangkok United 56%, Ratchaburi 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Bangkok United) and 28% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Bangkok United keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Ratchaburi in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bangkok United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bangkok United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Bangkok United's recent matches and 33% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Bangkok United's recent games and 28% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bangkok United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Bangkok United have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ratchaburi defy the odds to beat Bangkok United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Bangkok United 0-1 at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 1.73 xG and Ratchaburi 1.11 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bangkok United fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.51 / defence 0.99 against Ratchaburi attack 0.98 / defence 0.86, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 52% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 24%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Ratchaburi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 45%, Ratchaburi 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bangkok United's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Ratchaburi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.