Bangkok United 1-0 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Thammasat Stadium plays host to Bangkok United versus Chonburi FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 17 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bangkok United have collected 2.17 PPG across 6 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 1L. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bangkok United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bangkok United's home record at Thammasat Stadium: 2W 1D 0L from 3 Thai League 1 appearances (2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Chonburi FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games (1.57 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.43 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC's away record: 1W 1D 1L from 3 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 3.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Bangkok United's favour (2.17 vs 1.57) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Bangkok United — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Chonburi FC — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bangkok United 67% versus Chonburi FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bangkok United 50% | Chonburi FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bangkok United 1.49 xG and Chonburi FC 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bangkok United attack 1.126 / defence 0.946 | Chonburi FC attack 1.371 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.299. Chonburi FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Bangkok United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Chonburi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.371 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Bangkok United games / 7 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bangkok United 33% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Bangkok United 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Chonburi FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bangkok United (2.17 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Bangkok United 67% | Chonburi FC 33%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Thammasat Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bangkok United 33% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Bangkok United 1.49 / Chonburi FC 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Bangkok United attack 1.126 / def 0.946 | Chonburi FC attack 1.371 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Bangkok United xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Chonburi FC xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Thammasat Stadium.
What was the final score in Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC?
Bangkok United 1 - 0 Chonburi FC.
Where is Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Thammasat Stadium.
What competition is Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC part of?
Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Bangkok United a 33% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Bangkok United and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Chonburi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bangkok United and Chonburi FC in?
Bangkok United (all comps): 4W-1D-1L in 6 | 2.17 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 2.43 / GA 1.43 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bangkok United's attack at 1.13x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (1.37x) against Bangkok United's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 6/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
33%
3.04
26%
3.88
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Bangkok United xG
Total xG
3.17
1.68
Chonburi FC xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
19%
5.39
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
6%
16.39
9%
10.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Bangkok United and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Bangkok United and 1.68 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 6 outings, Bangkok United have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 4W 1D 1L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bangkok United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chonburi FC's form line: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chonburi FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bangkok United have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L).
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bangkok United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bangkok United are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 2.67 scored and 1.50 conceded. Chonburi FC's attacking output running into Bangkok United's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bangkok United have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bangkok United
Early Season
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bangkok United and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Bangkok United have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 games (2.17 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bangkok United at home or Chonburi FC away?
Bangkok United's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bangkok United at home: 2.33 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Bangkok United or Chonburi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bangkok United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Chonburi FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Bangkok United go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bangkok United won 6-0 on 31 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bangkok United have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Bangkok United
2
Draws
0
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Bangkok United have won 6, Chonburi FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bangkok United and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Bangkok United 1-0 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Bangkok United and Chonburi FC?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bangkok United 67%, Chonburi FC 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bangkok United) and 67% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Bangkok United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chonburi FC in 33%; Chonburi FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bangkok United home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bangkok United play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Bangkok United's recent matches and 33% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bangkok United vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bangkok United's recent games and 67% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bangkok United and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Bangkok United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bangkok United defy the odds to beat Chonburi FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bangkok United beat Chonburi FC 1-0 at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 1.49 xG and Chonburi FC 1.68 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chonburi FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.13 / defence 0.95 against Chonburi FC attack 1.37 / defence 1.28, drawn from 6/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 33% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 41%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Bangkok United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 50%, Chonburi FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bangkok United's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.