Servette FC 2-1 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Servette FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Servette FC vs FC Sion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de Genève plays host to Servette FC versus FC Sion in Super League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 20 March 2022 at 13:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Servette FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Servette FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Servette FC at Stade de Genève this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Sion's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, FC Sion have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Servette FC against 1.20 for FC Sion. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Servette FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FC Sion in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Servette FC half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
FC Sion half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Servette FC 65% and FC Sion 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Servette FC 62% | FC Sion 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Servette FC 1.61 xG and FC Sion 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Servette FC attack 0.918 / defence 1.039 | FC Sion attack 0.787 / defence 1.483. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.534. FC Sion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.483 — this is suppressing Servette FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Servette FC games / 26 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Servette FC 46% | Draw 24% | FC Sion 30%. Fair-value odds: Servette FC 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | FC Sion 3.33. Servette FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Servette FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Servette FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Servette FC 70% | FC Sion 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Servette FC vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade de Genève • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Servette FC 46% | Draw 24% | FC Sion 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Servette FC 1.61 / FC Sion 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Servette FC attack 0.918 / def 1.039 | FC Sion attack 0.787 / def 1.483 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.534 • Poisson stance: Servette FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Servette FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
FC Sion xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Servette FC vs FC Sion kick off?
Servette FC vs FC Sion kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Stade de Genève.
What was the final score in Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Servette FC 2 - 1 FC Sion.
Where is Servette FC vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Genève.
What competition is Servette FC vs FC Sion part of?
Servette FC vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives Servette FC a 46% chance of winning, FC Sion a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Servette FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Servette FC and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will Servette FC vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and FC Sion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Servette FC and FC Sion in?
Servette FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. FC Sion (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Servette FC's attack rating (0.92) and FC Sion's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Sion's attack (0.79x) against Servette FC's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Servette FC Win
46%
2.19
24%
4.08
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Servette FC xG
Total xG
2.87
1.25
FC Sion xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
6%
16.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Servette FC and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Servette FC and 1.25 for FC Sion, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, Servette FC have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 10W 5D 11L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Servette FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Sion's form line: 8W 6D 12L from 26 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Servette FC against 1.15 for FC Sion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Servette FC have posted 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L).
On the road, FC Sion have gone 2W 4D 6L from 12 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Servette FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Servette FC are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.27 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Servette FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; FC Sion in 62%.
Last 26 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Servette FC
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Servette FC and FC Sion in coming into this match?
Servette FC have gone 10W 5D 11L in their last 26 games (1.35 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 8W 6D 12L in their last 26 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Servette FC at home or FC Sion away?
Servette FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Servette FC at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Sion away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Servette FC won 5-0 on 13 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Servette FC have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Sion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Servette FC
7
Draws
0
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, Servette FC have won 3, FC Sion have won 0, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Servette FC and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Servette FC 0-0 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between Servette FC and FC Sion?
Servette FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Servette FC, 75% for FC Sion — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Servette FC) and 50% (FC Sion).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Servette FC home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Servette FC play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Servette FC's games and 75% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Servette FC vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Servette FC's recent games and 50% of FC Sion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Servette FC and FC Sion tend to score early?
Servette FC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Servette FC edge out FC Sion 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Servette FC beat FC Sion 2-1 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.61 xG and FC Sion 1.25 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.04 against FC Sion attack 0.79 / defence 1.48, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Servette FC 46% | Draw 24% | FC Sion 30%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 62%, FC Sion 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Servette FC's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
FC Sion's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Servette FC 1.35 PPG, FC Sion 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Servette FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.