Lausanne 3-1 Grasshoppers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Grasshoppers at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lausanne vs Grasshoppers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lausanne host Grasshoppers at Stade de la Tuilière in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 13:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lausanne stand at 0W 4D 5L from 9 Super League matches — 0.44 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's home record at Stade de la Tuilière: 0W 2D 2L from 4 Super League appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Grasshoppers have recorded 3W 4D 2L from 9 outings — 1.44 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.22. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Grasshoppers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grasshoppers away from home this season: 0W 3D 1L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.44 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Grasshoppers — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.44 vs 0.44). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Grasshoppers in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 89% and Grasshoppers 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 56% | Grasshoppers 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.11 xG and Grasshoppers 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.789 / defence 1.463 | Grasshoppers attack 0.672 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.600. Lausanne's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Lausanne games / 9 Grasshoppers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 23% | Draw 32% | Grasshoppers 44%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 4.35 | Draw 3.12 | Grasshoppers 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grasshoppers at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grasshoppers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 100% | Grasshoppers 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs Grasshoppers | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 23% | Draw 32% | Grasshoppers 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Lausanne 1.11 / Grasshoppers 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.789 / def 1.463 | Grasshoppers attack 0.672 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.600 • Poisson stance: Grasshoppers (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Grasshoppers xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs Grasshoppers kick off?
Lausanne vs Grasshoppers kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Lausanne 3 - 1 Grasshoppers.
Where is Lausanne vs Grasshoppers being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs Grasshoppers part of?
Lausanne vs Grasshoppers is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 23% chance of winning, Grasshoppers a 44% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Grasshoppers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lausanne and Grasshoppers will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs Grasshoppers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Grasshoppers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lausanne and Grasshoppers in?
Lausanne (all comps): 0W-4D-5L in 9 | 0.44 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.33 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Grasshoppers (all comps): 3W-4D-2L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.22 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lausanne's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Grasshoppers's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Grasshoppers's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grasshoppers Win
23%
4.29
32%
3.10
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.69
1.57
Grasshoppers xG
4.29
23%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
5%
20.69
15%
6.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.7 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Lausanne and Grasshoppers expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.57 for Grasshoppers, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lausanne's recent record stands at 0W 4D 5L from 9 games, a 0.44 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grasshoppers, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 2L across 9 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Grasshoppers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Grasshoppers by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lausanne heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lausanne have managed 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Grasshoppers's away record stands at 0W 3D 1L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Grasshoppers's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Lausanne are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Grasshoppers are on 1.67 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 89% of their recent games; Grasshoppers in 78%.
Last 9 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
Grasshoppers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and Grasshoppers in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 0W 4D 5L in their last 9 games (0.44 PPG), while Grasshoppers have gone 3W 4D 2L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or Grasshoppers away?
Grasshoppers's away record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 0.50 PPG; Grasshoppers away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Lausanne won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting Grasshoppers specifically: 1W 4D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lausanne
5
Draws
2
Grasshoppers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Grasshoppers?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 3, Grasshoppers have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and Grasshoppers last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Lausanne 1-1 Grasshoppers.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and Grasshoppers?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Grasshoppers see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lausanne at 100%, Grasshoppers at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Lausanne) and 25% (Grasshoppers).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / Grasshoppers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play Grasshoppers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Lausanne's games and 75% of Grasshoppers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs Grasshoppers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Lausanne's recent games and 25% of Grasshoppers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and Grasshoppers tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Grasshoppers in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lausanne cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Grasshoppers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat Grasshoppers 3-1 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.11 xG and Grasshoppers 1.57 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.79 / defence 1.46 against Grasshoppers attack 0.67 / defence 0.98, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 23% | Draw 32% | Grasshoppers 44%, with Grasshoppers to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Lausanne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 56%, Grasshoppers 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 89% of their matches — today it did.
Grasshoppers's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Grasshoppers arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.44. Form was overturned, with Lausanne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.