Lausanne 1-3 FC Zurich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Zurich at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lausanne vs FC Zurich encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Lausanne welcome FC Zurich to Stade de la Tuilière. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Lausanne have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's home record at Stade de la Tuilière: 1W 3D 4L from 8 Super League appearances (0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Zurich stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Zurich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Zurich's away record: 4W 2D 2L from 8 road trips in Super League this season (1.75 PPG). They are averaging 1.88 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. FC Zurich's 2.10 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Lausanne's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lausanne register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, FC Zurich in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Lausanne in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Zurich in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 75% and FC Zurich 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 50% | FC Zurich 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.22 xG and FC Zurich 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.743 / defence 1.447 | FC Zurich attack 0.942 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.526. Lausanne's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Zurich bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Lausanne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Lausanne games / 16 FC Zurich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 22% | Draw 21% | FC Zurich 57%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 4.55 | Draw 4.76 | FC Zurich 1.75. The model has a clear lean to FC Zurich (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 2.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Zurich are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 75% | FC Zurich 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Zurich | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 22% | Draw 21% | FC Zurich 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Lausanne 1.22 / FC Zurich 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.743 / def 1.447 | FC Zurich attack 0.942 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.526 • Poisson stance: FC Zurich (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
2.08
FC Zurich xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs FC Zurich kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Zurich kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC Zurich?
Lausanne 1 - 3 FC Zurich.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Zurich being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Zurich part of?
Lausanne vs FC Zurich is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Zurich?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 22% chance of winning, FC Zurich a 57% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Zurich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Zurich?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Lausanne and FC Zurich will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs FC Zurich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Zurich?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lausanne and FC Zurich in?
Lausanne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. FC Zurich (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lausanne's attack rating (0.74) and FC Zurich's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Zurich's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 2.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Zurich Win
22%
4.59
21%
4.78
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
0 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.30
2.08
FC Zurich xG
4.59
22%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
12%
8.01
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
3%
36.74
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Zurich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Zurich expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Lausanne and 2.08 for FC Zurich, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Zurich?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lausanne come into this having played 16 games, going 2W 6D 8L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Zurich sit at 2.12 PPG from 16 outings (10W 4D 2L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Zurich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Zurich carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.37 PPG clear of Lausanne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lausanne's home form reads 1W 3D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Zurich have taken 1.75 points per game from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Zurich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lausanne are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FC Zurich are on 2.31 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; FC Zurich in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
FC Zurich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and FC Zurich in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 2W 6D 8L in their last 16 games (0.75 PPG), while FC Zurich have gone 10W 4D 2L in their last 16 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC Zurich away?
FC Zurich's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 0.75 PPG; FC Zurich away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Lausanne or FC Zurich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lausanne have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, FC Zurich in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lausanne and FC Zurich runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lausanne have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Lausanne won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting FC Zurich specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lausanne
3
Draws
2
FC Zurich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Zurich?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 5, FC Zurich have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Zurich last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Lausanne 3-0 FC Zurich.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Zurich?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Zurich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lausanne at 75%, FC Zurich at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Lausanne and 75% for FC Zurich. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Zurich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play FC Zurich?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Lausanne's games and 62% of FC Zurich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs FC Zurich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Lausanne's matches and 75% of FC Zurich's.
Do Lausanne and FC Zurich tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Zurich in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Zurich cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lausanne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Zurich beat Lausanne 1-3 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.22 xG and FC Zurich 2.08 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Zurich outscored their 2.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.74 / defence 1.45 against FC Zurich attack 0.94 / defence 1.29, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 22% | Draw 21% | FC Zurich 57%, with FC Zurich to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 50%, FC Zurich 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
FC Zurich's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Zurich arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Zurich (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.