Lausanne 0-0 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 33 as Lausanne welcome FC Basel 1893 to Stade de la Tuilière. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 May 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Lausanne have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade de la Tuilière, Lausanne have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Basel 1893 stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
FC Basel 1893 away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Basel 1893 are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lausanne register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Basel 1893 in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
FC Basel 1893 in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 66% and FC Basel 1893 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 59% | FC Basel 1893 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.53 xG and FC Basel 1893 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 1.043 / defence 1.408 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.021 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.478. Data: 32 Lausanne games / 32 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 28% | Draw 21% | FC Basel 1893 51%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 3.57 | Draw 4.76 | FC Basel 1893 1.96. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 2.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Basel 1893 are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.65 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 60% | FC Basel 1893 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 28% | Draw 21% | FC Basel 1893 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG Lausanne 1.53 / FC Basel 1893 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 1.043 / def 1.408 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.021 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.478 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
2.12
FC Basel 1893 xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Lausanne 0 - 0 FC Basel 1893.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 28% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 51% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 in?
Lausanne (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lausanne's attack rating (1.04) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 2.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
28%
3.60
21%
4.79
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.65
2.12
FC Basel 1893 xG
3.60
28%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
12%
8.36
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
3%
30.08
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Lausanne and 2.12 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Lausanne have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 4W 8D 20L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
FC Basel 1893's form line: 14W 14D 4L from 32 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-L.
Put side by side, FC Basel 1893 are the form team by 1.13 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lausanne.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lausanne have posted 0.81 PPG from 16 outings (3W 4D 9L).
On the road, FC Basel 1893 have gone 7W 7D 2L from 16 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lausanne are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 2.09 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Current Season
FC Basel 1893
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 4W 8D 20L in their last 32 games (0.62 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 14W 14D 4L in their last 32 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
FC Basel 1893's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 0.81 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Lausanne or FC Basel 1893 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lausanne have kept a clean sheet in 3% of their recent games, FC Basel 1893 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lausanne
4
Draws
2
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 4, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when FC Basel 1893 0-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lausanne at 75%, FC Basel 1893 at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Lausanne and 56% for FC Basel 1893. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play FC Basel 1893?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Lausanne's games and 62% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Lausanne's matches and 56% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lausanne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 finished level at 0-0 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 33, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.53 xG and FC Basel 1893 2.12 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lausanne fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC Basel 1893 landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.04 / defence 1.41 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.02 / defence 1.13, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 28% | Draw 21% | FC Basel 1893 51%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 59%, FC Basel 1893 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.