Lausanne 2-2 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Lausanne welcome FC Basel 1893 to Stade de la Tuilière. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 August 2021 at 13:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Lausanne have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lausanne have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Basel 1893 stand at 3W 0D 0L from 3 Super League matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 4.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Basel 1893 have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Basel 1893 are 3.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lausanne register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, FC Basel 1893 in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
FC Basel 1893 in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 100% and FC Basel 1893 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lausanne 100% | FC Basel 1893 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.09 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.882 / defence 1.215 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.909 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.540. Data: 3 Lausanne games / 3 FC Basel 1893 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lausanne 23% | Draw 28% | FC Basel 1893 50%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | FC Basel 1893 2.00. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Basel 1893 are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 100% | FC Basel 1893 67% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 23% | Draw 28% | FC Basel 1893 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Lausanne 1.09 / FC Basel 1893 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.882 / def 1.215 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.909 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.540 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.70
FC Basel 1893 xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Lausanne 2 - 2 FC Basel 1893.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 23% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 in?
Lausanne (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.67 | L5 L-L-L. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 4.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lausanne's attack rating (0.88) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
23%
4.44
28%
3.59
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.80
1.70
FC Basel 1893 xG
4.44
23%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
4%
24.33
17%
6.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.70 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Lausanne have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 3L record — L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lausanne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Basel 1893's form line: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W-W. It's still early in the season for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Basel 1893 are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lausanne.
The Goals Picture
Lausanne are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 4.33 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Early Season
FC Basel 1893
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have Lausanne or FC Basel 1893 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lausanne have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, FC Basel 1893 in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lausanne
4
Draws
2
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 4, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when FC Basel 1893 0-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lausanne at 100%, FC Basel 1893 at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Lausanne and 67% for FC Basel 1893. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play FC Basel 1893?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Lausanne's games and 67% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Lausanne's matches and 67% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 finished level at 2-2 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.09 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.70 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.88 / defence 1.22 against FC Basel 1893 attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 23% | Draw 28% | FC Basel 1893 50%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 100%, FC Basel 1893 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lausanne scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. FC Basel 1893 managed 2 against a 4.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.