Lausanne 2-2 BSC Young Boys – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BSC Young Boys at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Lausanne welcome BSC Young Boys to Stade de la Tuilière. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 March 2022 at 13:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Lausanne — All Games: 0W 1D 9L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lausanne have posted 1W 1D 8L at Stade de la Tuilière — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, BSC Young Boys stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BSC Young Boys, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. BSC Young Boys's 1.90 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Lausanne's 0.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lausanne register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, BSC Young Boys in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BSC Young Boys in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 60% and BSC Young Boys 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 48% | BSC Young Boys 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 0.91 xG and BSC Young Boys 2.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.644 / defence 1.553 | BSC Young Boys attack 1.023 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.576. Lausanne's attack strength of 0.644 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. BSC Young Boys bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Lausanne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Lausanne games / 25 BSC Young Boys games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 12% | Draw 16% | BSC Young Boys 72%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 8.33 | Draw 6.25 | BSC Young Boys 1.39. The model has a clear lean to BSC Young Boys (72%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BSC Young Boys at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 60% | BSC Young Boys 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 12% | Draw 16% | BSC Young Boys 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 55% | xG Lausanne 0.91 / BSC Young Boys 2.50 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.644 / def 1.553 | BSC Young Boys attack 1.023 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.576 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
2.50
BSC Young Boys xG
55%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys kick off?
Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Lausanne 2 - 2 BSC Young Boys.
Where is Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys part of?
Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 12% chance of winning, BSC Young Boys a 72% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lausanne and BSC Young Boys will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and BSC Young Boys?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lausanne and BSC Young Boys in?
Lausanne (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. BSC Young Boys (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lausanne's attack at 0.64x the league average against BSC Young Boys's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, BSC Young Boys's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 2.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-3 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
12%
8.61
16%
6.13
72%
1.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 3
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.42
2.50
BSC Young Boys xG
8.61
12%
Home win
6.13
16%
Draw
1.39
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
8%
12.23
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
1%
105.26
29%
3.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 8.2 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Lausanne and BSC Young Boys expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Lausanne and 2.50 for BSC Young Boys, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, Lausanne have picked up 0.48 PPG on a 2W 6D 17L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BSC Young Boys's form line: 12W 8D 5L from 25 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. The sample for BSC Young Boys is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, BSC Young Boys are the form team by 1.28 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lausanne.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lausanne have posted 0.50 PPG from 12 outings (1W 3D 8L).
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 4W 4D 4L from 12 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BSC Young Boys's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BSC Young Boys come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lausanne are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; BSC Young Boys are on 2.28 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; BSC Young Boys in 68%.
Last 25 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
BSC Young Boys
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and BSC Young Boys in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 2W 6D 17L in their last 25 games (0.48 PPG), while BSC Young Boys have gone 12W 8D 5L in their last 25 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or BSC Young Boys away?
BSC Young Boys's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 0.50 PPG; BSC Young Boys away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting BSC Young Boys specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lausanne
1
Draws
5
BSC Young Boys
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and BSC Young Boys?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 4, BSC Young Boys have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and BSC Young Boys last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Lausanne 0-2 BSC Young Boys.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and BSC Young Boys?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 67%, BSC Young Boys 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Lausanne) and 58% (BSC Young Boys). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / BSC Young Boys away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play BSC Young Boys?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lausanne's games and 58% of BSC Young Boys's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Lausanne's matches and 58% of BSC Young Boys's.
Do Lausanne and BSC Young Boys tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, BSC Young Boys in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lausanne and BSC Young Boys share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 26, as Lausanne and BSC Young Boys drew 2-2 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 0.91 xG and BSC Young Boys 2.50 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.64 / defence 1.55 against BSC Young Boys attack 1.02 / defence 1.21, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 12% | Draw 16% | BSC Young Boys 72%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 48%, BSC Young Boys 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.48. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.