Grasshoppers 3-1 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grasshoppers at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grasshoppers vs Lausanne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Grasshoppers host Lausanne at Stadion Letzigrund in Super League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 April 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Grasshoppers stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion Letzigrund, Grasshoppers have gone 0W 5D 5L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lausanne away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Grasshoppers at 0.90 PPG versus Lausanne's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Grasshoppers trading profile (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 93% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Lausanne trading profile (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grasshoppers 70% and Lausanne 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grasshoppers 53% | Lausanne 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grasshoppers 1.76 xG and Lausanne 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grasshoppers attack 0.990 / defence 1.564 | Lausanne attack 0.624 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.529. Lausanne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing Grasshoppers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Grasshoppers games / 30 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grasshoppers 44% | Draw 23% | Lausanne 33%. Fair-value odds: Grasshoppers 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Lausanne 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Grasshoppers as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grasshoppers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Grasshoppers 90% | Lausanne 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grasshoppers vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Letzigrund • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grasshoppers 44% | Draw 23% | Lausanne 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Grasshoppers 1.76 / Lausanne 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Grasshoppers attack 0.990 / def 1.564 | Lausanne attack 0.624 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.529 • Poisson stance: Grasshoppers (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Grasshoppers xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Lausanne xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grasshoppers vs Lausanne kick off?
Grasshoppers vs Lausanne kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Stadion Letzigrund.
What was the final score in Grasshoppers vs Lausanne?
Grasshoppers 3 - 1 Lausanne.
Where is Grasshoppers vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letzigrund.
What competition is Grasshoppers vs Lausanne part of?
Grasshoppers vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Grasshoppers vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives Grasshoppers a 44% chance of winning, Lausanne a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Grasshoppers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grasshoppers vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Grasshoppers and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will Grasshoppers vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grasshoppers and Lausanne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Grasshoppers and Lausanne in?
Grasshoppers (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Lausanne (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Grasshoppers's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Lausanne's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus Grasshoppers's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Grasshoppers Win
44%
2.26
23%
4.35
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Grasshoppers xG
Total xG
3.25
1.49
Lausanne xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
10%
10.06
6%
17.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grasshoppers vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Grasshoppers and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Grasshoppers and 1.49 for Lausanne, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Grasshoppers vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Grasshoppers have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 7W 11D 12L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Lausanne's form line: 4W 8D 18L from 30 games, 0.67 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Grasshoppers are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lausanne.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Grasshoppers have posted 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (3W 6D 5L).
On the road, Lausanne have gone 1W 4D 9L from 14 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grasshoppers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Grasshoppers are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.10 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grasshoppers have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Lausanne in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grasshoppers
Current Season
Lausanne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grasshoppers and Lausanne in coming into this match?
Grasshoppers have gone 7W 11D 12L in their last 30 games (1.07 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 4W 8D 18L in their last 30 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grasshoppers at home or Lausanne away?
Grasshoppers's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grasshoppers at home: 1.07 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Grasshoppers and Lausanne runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Lausanne won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Grasshoppers's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Grasshoppers
5
Draws
3
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grasshoppers and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, Grasshoppers have won 2, Lausanne have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Grasshoppers and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Lausanne 1-1 Grasshoppers.
Who has won more matches between Grasshoppers and Lausanne?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grasshoppers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Grasshoppers at 93%, Lausanne at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Grasshoppers) and 43% (Lausanne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grasshoppers home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grasshoppers play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 93% of Grasshoppers's games and 57% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grasshoppers vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Grasshoppers's matches and 43% of Lausanne's.
Do Grasshoppers and Lausanne tend to score early?
Grasshoppers have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grasshoppers cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lausanne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grasshoppers beat Lausanne 3-1 at Stadion Letzigrund, Regular Season - 31, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grasshoppers 1.76 xG and Lausanne 1.49 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Grasshoppers beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grasshoppers attack 0.99 / defence 1.56 against Lausanne attack 0.62 / defence 1.36, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grasshoppers 44% | Draw 23% | Lausanne 33%, with Grasshoppers to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grasshoppers 53%, Lausanne 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grasshoppers's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Grasshoppers arrived the stronger side — 1.07 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lausanne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.