FC ST. Gallen 1-1 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC ST. Gallen at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 4 as FC ST. Gallen welcome FC Sion to Kybunpark. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — a 1.33 PPG return. Last five: W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.67 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC ST. Gallen have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Sion — All Games: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Super League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.67 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Sion have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.33 PPG (FC ST. Gallen) versus 1.00 (FC Sion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC ST. Gallen register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, FC Sion in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
FC Sion trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 100% and FC Sion 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC ST. Gallen 100% | FC Sion 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 2.09 xG and FC Sion 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.011 / defence 1.199 | FC Sion attack 0.801 / defence 1.547. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.573. FC Sion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.547 — this is suppressing FC ST. Gallen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 FC ST. Gallen games / 3 FC Sion games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 51% | Draw 21% | FC Sion 28%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 1.96 | Draw 4.76 | FC Sion 3.57. FC ST. Gallen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 100% | FC Sion 67% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 51% | Draw 21% | FC Sion 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 68% | xG FC ST. Gallen 2.09 / FC Sion 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.011 / def 1.199 | FC Sion attack 0.801 / def 1.547 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.573 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.51
FC Sion xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
FC ST. Gallen 1 - 1 FC Sion.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 51% chance of winning, FC Sion a 28% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-D-L. FC Sion (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.67 | L5 L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 1.01x the league average against FC Sion's defence at 1.55x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
51%
1.96
21%
4.74
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.60
1.51
FC Sion xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
12%
8.06
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
3%
28.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.51 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC ST. Gallen's recent record stands at 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Sion, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 2L across 3 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Sion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC ST. Gallen on 1.33 PPG, FC Sion on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.00 scored and 2.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; FC Sion in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Early Season
FC Sion
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have FC ST. Gallen or FC Sion been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC ST. Gallen have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, FC Sion in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when FC ST. Gallen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC ST. Gallen's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC ST. Gallen
4
Draws
2
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, FC Sion have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 0-3 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC ST. Gallen at 100%, FC Sion at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for FC ST. Gallen and 67% for FC Sion. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 67% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 67% of FC Sion's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 4, as FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.09 xG and FC Sion 1.51 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.01 / defence 1.20 against FC Sion attack 0.80 / defence 1.55, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 51% | Draw 21% | FC Sion 28%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 100%, FC Sion 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
FC Sion's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.33 PPG, FC Sion 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Sion conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.