FC Sion 1-0 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Sion at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sion vs Lausanne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lausanne make the trip to Stade de Tourbillon to face FC Sion in Super League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Wednesday 2 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Sion have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade de Tourbillon this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — FC Sion are significantly better at Stade de Tourbillon than their overall form suggests.
Lausanne (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Lausanne have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward FC Sion. A 0.70 PPG lead over Lausanne (1.10 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Sion lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with FC Sion winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Sion — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Lausanne — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 65% and Lausanne 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 48% | Lausanne 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.47 xG and Lausanne 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.914 / defence 0.918 | Lausanne attack 0.546 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.444. Lausanne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing FC Sion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 FC Sion games / 23 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 55% | Draw 27% | Lausanne 18%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Lausanne 5.56. The model has a clear lean to FC Sion (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sion as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: FC Sion 50% | Lausanne 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 55% | Draw 27% | Lausanne 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG FC Sion 1.47 / Lausanne 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.914 / def 0.918 | Lausanne attack 0.546 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Lausanne xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs Lausanne kick off?
FC Sion vs Lausanne kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 2 March 2022 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs Lausanne?
FC Sion 1 - 0 Lausanne.
Where is FC Sion vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs Lausanne part of?
FC Sion vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 55% chance of winning, Lausanne a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both FC Sion and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and Lausanne?
Record (2 meetings): FC Sion 1W | Draws 1 | Lausanne 0W.
What form are FC Sion and Lausanne in?
FC Sion (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Lausanne (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Sion's attack at 0.91x the league average against Lausanne's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lausanne's attack (0.55x) against FC Sion's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
55%
1.82
27%
3.76
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.19
0.72
Lausanne xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
4%
23.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 11.9 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are FC Sion and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for FC Sion and 0.72 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs Lausanne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Sion come into this having played 23 games, going 7W 5D 11L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lausanne sit at 0.52 PPG from 23 outings (2W 6D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Sion carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Lausanne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Sion's home form reads 5W 2D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — FC Sion are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lausanne have taken 0.55 points per game from 11 outings (1W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Sion are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 0.87 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Lausanne in 65%.
Last 23 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 7W 5D 11L in their last 23 games (1.13 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 2W 6D 15L in their last 23 (0.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or Lausanne away?
FC Sion's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.55 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Sion won 4-0 on 27 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Sion have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lausanne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Sion
3
Draws
2
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 5, Lausanne have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when FC Sion 3-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and Lausanne?
FC Sion have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 54%, Lausanne 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (FC Sion) and 36% (Lausanne).
On the defensive side: Lausanne in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play Lausanne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of FC Sion's recent matches and 54% of Lausanne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Sion vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of FC Sion's recent games and 36% of Lausanne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Sion edge out Lausanne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion beat Lausanne 1-0 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.47 xG and Lausanne 0.72 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.91 / defence 0.92 against Lausanne attack 0.55 / defence 1.23, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 55% | Draw 27% | Lausanne 18%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 48%, Lausanne 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Lausanne's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Sion arrived the stronger side — 1.13 PPG against 0.52. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Sion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Lausanne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.