FC Sion 2-0 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Sion at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sion vs Lausanne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lausanne make the trip to Stade de Tourbillon to face FC Sion in Super League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 December 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Sion have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 4L across 8 games at Stade de Tourbillon this term (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lausanne (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Lausanne have posted 1W 3D 4L from 8 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for FC Sion against 0.90 for Lausanne. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Sion have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Lausanne in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Sion lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Sion — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Lausanne — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 71% and Lausanne 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 53% | Lausanne 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.21 xG and Lausanne 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.846 / defence 1.065 | Lausanne attack 0.683 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.627. Data: 17 FC Sion games / 17 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 36% | Draw 30% | Lausanne 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Lausanne 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sion as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Sion if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: FC Sion 62% | Lausanne 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 36% | Draw 30% | Lausanne 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG FC Sion 1.21 / Lausanne 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.846 / def 1.065 | Lausanne attack 0.683 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.627 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Lausanne xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs Lausanne kick off?
FC Sion vs Lausanne kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs Lausanne?
FC Sion 2 - 0 Lausanne.
Where is FC Sion vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs Lausanne part of?
FC Sion vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 36% chance of winning, Lausanne a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC Sion and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and Lausanne?
Record (1 meetings): FC Sion 0W | Draws 1 | Lausanne 0W.
What form are FC Sion and Lausanne in?
FC Sion (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Lausanne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Sion's attack at 0.85x the league average against Lausanne's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lausanne's attack (0.68x) against FC Sion's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
36%
2.80
30%
3.37
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.39
1.18
Lausanne xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
10%
9.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are FC Sion and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.18 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Sion come into this having played 17 games, going 5W 3D 9L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lausanne sit at 0.71 PPG from 17 outings (2W 6D 9L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for FC Sion against 0.71 for Lausanne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Sion's home form reads 3W 1D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Lausanne have taken 0.75 points per game from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Sion are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.06 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Lausanne in 76%.
Last 17 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 5W 3D 9L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 2W 6D 9L in their last 17 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or Lausanne away?
FC Sion's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.25 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Sion won 4-0 on 27 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Sion have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lausanne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Sion
3
Draws
2
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 5, Lausanne have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when FC Sion 3-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and Lausanne?
FC Sion have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for FC Sion, 75% for Lausanne — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Sion) and 38% (Lausanne).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC Sion's games and 75% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Sion's recent games and 38% of Lausanne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Sion cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lausanne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion beat Lausanne 2-0 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.21 xG and Lausanne 1.18 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lausanne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.85 / defence 1.06 against Lausanne attack 0.68 / defence 1.16, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 36% | Draw 30% | Lausanne 35%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 53%, Lausanne 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 74%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Lausanne's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.06 PPG, Lausanne 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.