FC Sion 1-3 Grasshoppers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Sion at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sion vs Grasshoppers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 12 as FC Sion welcome Grasshoppers to Stade de Tourbillon. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 13:15 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Sion — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Sion have posted 2W 1D 2L at Stade de Tourbillon — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Grasshoppers stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Grasshoppers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Grasshoppers have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (FC Sion) versus 1.40 (Grasshoppers). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Sion register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Grasshoppers in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
FC Sion trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Grasshoppers trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 82% and Grasshoppers 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 54% | Grasshoppers 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.34 xG and Grasshoppers 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.786 / defence 1.000 | Grasshoppers attack 0.646 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.546. FC Sion's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 FC Sion games / 11 Grasshoppers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 41% | Draw 35% | Grasshoppers 24%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Grasshoppers 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sion as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 60% | Grasshoppers 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs Grasshoppers | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 41% | Draw 35% | Grasshoppers 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG FC Sion 1.34 / Grasshoppers 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.786 / def 1.000 | Grasshoppers attack 0.646 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.546 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Grasshoppers xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs Grasshoppers kick off?
FC Sion vs Grasshoppers kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs Grasshoppers?
FC Sion 1 - 3 Grasshoppers.
Where is FC Sion vs Grasshoppers being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs Grasshoppers part of?
FC Sion vs Grasshoppers is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs Grasshoppers?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 41% chance of winning, Grasshoppers a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs Grasshoppers?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC Sion and Grasshoppers will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs Grasshoppers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and Grasshoppers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sion and Grasshoppers in?
FC Sion (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Grasshoppers (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Grasshoppers's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Grasshoppers's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
41%
2.46
35%
2.83
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.34
1.00
Grasshoppers xG
2.46
41%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
6%
15.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs Grasshoppers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FC Sion and Grasshoppers expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.00 for Grasshoppers, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs Grasshoppers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Sion's recent record stands at 3W 3D 5L from 11 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grasshoppers, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 3L across 11 games — 1.27 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Grasshoppers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Sion on 1.09 PPG, Grasshoppers on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Sion have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Grasshoppers's away record stands at 0W 3D 2L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Grasshoppers's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Sion are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Grasshoppers are on 1.73 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games; Grasshoppers in 82%.
Last 11 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
Grasshoppers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and Grasshoppers in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Grasshoppers have gone 3W 5D 3L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or Grasshoppers away?
FC Sion's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.40 PPG; Grasshoppers away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: FC Sion have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2026, when FC Sion won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sion's record when hosting Grasshoppers specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Sion
2
Draws
3
Grasshoppers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and Grasshoppers?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 5, Grasshoppers have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and Grasshoppers last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Grasshoppers 0-4 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and Grasshoppers?
FC Sion have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Grasshoppers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Sion at 60%, Grasshoppers at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (FC Sion) and 40% (Grasshoppers).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / Grasshoppers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play Grasshoppers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FC Sion's games and 80% of Grasshoppers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs Grasshoppers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of FC Sion's recent games and 40% of Grasshoppers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and Grasshoppers tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Grasshoppers in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grasshoppers cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Sion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grasshoppers beat FC Sion 1-3 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.34 xG and Grasshoppers 1.00 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Grasshoppers outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.79 / defence 1.00 against Grasshoppers attack 0.65 / defence 1.13, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 41% | Draw 35% | Grasshoppers 24%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Grasshoppers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 54%, Grasshoppers 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 82%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Grasshoppers's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.09 PPG, Grasshoppers 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grasshoppers win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sion (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.