FC Sion 1-2 BSC Young Boys – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BSC Young Boys at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sion host BSC Young Boys at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 May 2022 at 13:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Sion stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Sion have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stade de Tourbillon — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League games this season, BSC Young Boys have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Sion at 0.90 PPG versus BSC Young Boys's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
FC Sion in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BSC Young Boys in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 61% and BSC Young Boys 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 52% | BSC Young Boys 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.00 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.640 / defence 1.015 | BSC Young Boys attack 1.004 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.499. FC Sion's attack strength of 0.640 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 FC Sion games / 31 BSC Young Boys games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 25% | Draw 26% | BSC Young Boys 50%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | BSC Young Boys 2.00. BSC Young Boys hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BSC Young Boys are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BSC Young Boys offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: FC Sion 30% | BSC Young Boys 70%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 25% | Draw 26% | BSC Young Boys 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG FC Sion 1.00 / BSC Young Boys 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.640 / def 1.015 | BSC Young Boys attack 1.004 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.499 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.53
BSC Young Boys xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys kick off?
FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys?
FC Sion 1 - 2 BSC Young Boys.
Where is FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys part of?
FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 25% chance of winning, BSC Young Boys a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC Sion and BSC Young Boys will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and BSC Young Boys?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sion and BSC Young Boys in?
FC Sion (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. BSC Young Boys (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Sion's attack rating (0.64) and BSC Young Boys's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BSC Young Boys's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
25%
4.04
26%
3.89
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.53
1.53
BSC Young Boys xG
4.04
25%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
5%
18.59
18%
5.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FC Sion and BSC Young Boys expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.53 for BSC Young Boys, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Sion come into this having played 31 games, going 9W 7D 15L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, BSC Young Boys sit at 1.61 PPG from 31 outings (13W 11D 7L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five.
BSC Young Boys carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of FC Sion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Sion's home form reads 6W 3D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, BSC Young Boys have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (4W 6D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BSC Young Boys's season.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Sion are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; BSC Young Boys are on 2.19 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; BSC Young Boys in 74%.
Last 31 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Current Season
BSC Young Boys
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and BSC Young Boys in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 9W 7D 15L in their last 31 games (1.10 PPG), while BSC Young Boys have gone 13W 11D 7L in their last 31 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or BSC Young Boys away?
FC Sion's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.40 PPG; BSC Young Boys away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2023, when BSC Young Boys won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sion's record when hosting BSC Young Boys specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Sion
2
Draws
4
BSC Young Boys
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and BSC Young Boys?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 4, BSC Young Boys have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and BSC Young Boys last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when BSC Young Boys 4-2 FC Sion.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 40%, BSC Young Boys 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (FC Sion) and 67% (BSC Young Boys).
On the defensive side: FC Sion keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Sion have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / BSC Young Boys away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play BSC Young Boys?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of FC Sion's recent matches and 67% of BSC Young Boys's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of FC Sion's recent games and 67% of BSC Young Boys's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and BSC Young Boys tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, BSC Young Boys in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BSC Young Boys edge out FC Sion 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BSC Young Boys beat FC Sion 1-2 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 32, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.00 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.53 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.64 / defence 1.01 against BSC Young Boys attack 1.00 / defence 1.19, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 25% | Draw 26% | BSC Young Boys 50%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 52%, BSC Young Boys 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. FC Sion (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.