FC Sion 1-0 BSC Young Boys – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BSC Young Boys at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sion host BSC Young Boys at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Sion stand at 0W 0D 2L from 2 Super League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 4.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 4.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Sion have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Super League games this season, BSC Young Boys have recorded 1W 1D 0L from 2 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. BSC Young Boys have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour BSC Young Boys — 2.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.44 xG and BSC Young Boys 2.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.924 / defence 1.175 | BSC Young Boys attack 1.079 / defence 1.351. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.808. BSC Young Boys bring a strong defensive rating of 1.351 — this is suppressing FC Sion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 FC Sion games / 2 BSC Young Boys games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Sion 21% | Draw 25% | BSC Young Boys 54%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | BSC Young Boys 1.85. BSC Young Boys hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 2.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BSC Young Boys are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BSC Young Boys offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 21% | Draw 25% | BSC Young Boys 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 71% | xG FC Sion 1.44 / BSC Young Boys 2.29 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.924 / def 1.175 | BSC Young Boys attack 1.079 / def 1.351 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.808 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
2.29
BSC Young Boys xG
71%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys kick off?
FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys?
FC Sion 1 - 0 BSC Young Boys.
Where is FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys part of?
FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 21% chance of winning, BSC Young Boys a 54% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both FC Sion and BSC Young Boys will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and BSC Young Boys?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sion and BSC Young Boys in?
FC Sion (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 L-L. BSC Young Boys (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Sion's attack rating (0.92) and BSC Young Boys's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BSC Young Boys's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 2.29 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 1-3 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
21%
4.74
25%
4.08
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
1 – 3
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
FC Sion xG
Total xG
3.73
2.29
BSC Young Boys xG
4.74
21%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.43
Clean Sheet
10%
9.88
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
2%
46.83
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are FC Sion and BSC Young Boys expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for FC Sion and 2.29 for BSC Young Boys, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Sion come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 0D 2L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L. It's still early in the season for FC Sion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, BSC Young Boys sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for BSC Young Boys, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
BSC Young Boys carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of FC Sion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Sion are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; BSC Young Boys are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: BSC Young Boys in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Early Season
BSC Young Boys
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and BSC Young Boys in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while BSC Young Boys have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have FC Sion or BSC Young Boys been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, BSC Young Boys in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2023, when BSC Young Boys won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sion's record when hosting BSC Young Boys specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Sion
2
Draws
4
BSC Young Boys
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and BSC Young Boys?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 4, BSC Young Boys have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and BSC Young Boys last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when BSC Young Boys 4-2 FC Sion.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / BSC Young Boys away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play BSC Young Boys?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC Sion's games and 50% of BSC Young Boys's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC Sion's matches and 50% of BSC Young Boys's.
Do FC Sion and BSC Young Boys tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, BSC Young Boys in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Sion defy the odds to beat BSC Young Boys 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion beat BSC Young Boys 1-0 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.44 xG and BSC Young Boys 2.29 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. BSC Young Boys landed 2.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.92 / defence 1.18 against BSC Young Boys attack 1.08 / defence 1.35, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 21% | Draw 25% | BSC Young Boys 54%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a FC Sion win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 100%, BSC Young Boys 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with FC Sion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Sion conceded 0 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line. BSC Young Boys managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.