FC Basel 1893 3-0 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 22 as FC Basel 1893 welcome Lausanne to St. Jakob-Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC Basel 1893 have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Basel 1893's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at St. Jakob-Park this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — FC Basel 1893 are significantly better at St. Jakob-Park than their overall form suggests.
Lausanne — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
FC Basel 1893 are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Basel 1893 register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Lausanne in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Lausanne in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Basel 1893 71% and Lausanne 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 52% | Lausanne 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.59 xG and Lausanne 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.125 / defence 1.187 | Lausanne attack 0.571 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.582. Data: 21 FC Basel 1893 games / 21 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 49% | Draw 25% | Lausanne 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Lausanne 3.85. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Basel 1893 at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 80% | Lausanne 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 49% | Draw 25% | Lausanne 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.59 / Lausanne 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.125 / def 1.187 | Lausanne attack 0.571 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.582 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Lausanne xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
FC Basel 1893 3 - 0 Lausanne.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 49% chance of winning, Lausanne a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Lausanne (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Basel 1893's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Lausanne's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
49%
2.02
25%
4.00
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
2.67
1.07
Lausanne xG
2.02
49%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
5%
19.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.07 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Basel 1893's recent record stands at 9W 10D 2L from 21 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 2W 6D 13L across 21 games — 0.57 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Basel 1893 by 1.19 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lausanne heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Basel 1893 have managed 4W 5D 1L from 10 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lausanne's away record stands at 1W 3D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 0.90 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Basel 1893 have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Lausanne in 67%.
Last 21 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 9W 10D 2L in their last 21 games (1.76 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 2W 6D 13L in their last 21 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or Lausanne away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.70 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Basel 1893
4
Draws
4
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, Lausanne have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Lausanne 1-2 FC Basel 1893.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Basel 1893 at 80%, Lausanne at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Basel 1893) and 30% (Lausanne).
On the defensive side: Lausanne in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of FC Basel 1893's games and 60% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Basel 1893's recent games and 30% of Lausanne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Basel 1893 run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lausanne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat Lausanne 3-0 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.59 xG and Lausanne 1.07 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lausanne landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.12 / defence 1.19 against Lausanne attack 0.57 / defence 1.12, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 49% | Draw 25% | Lausanne 26%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 52%, Lausanne 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Lausanne's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.