Norrby IF 2-2 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Ostersunds FK travel to to take on Norrby IF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 July 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Norrby IF stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norrby IF's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 2L across 8 games at this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Ostersunds FK have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ostersunds FK are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Norrby IF have won 1, Ostersunds FK 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Norrby IF trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Ostersunds FK trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Norrby IF 71% and Ostersunds FK 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norrby IF 47% | Ostersunds FK 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.10 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.872 / defence 1.035 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.860 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.467. Data: 15 Norrby IF games / 45 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 31% | Draw 27% | Ostersunds FK 41%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Ostersunds FK 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ostersunds FK are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Norrby IF 62% | Ostersunds FK 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 31% | Draw 27% | Ostersunds FK 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Norrby IF 1.10 / Ostersunds FK 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 0.872 / def 1.035 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.860 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.467 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Ostersunds FK xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 26 July 2026.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Norrby IF 2 - 2 Ostersunds FK.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 31% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Norrby IF and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Ostersunds FK?
Record (3 meetings): Norrby IF 1W | Draws 1 | Ostersunds FK 1W.
What form are Norrby IF and Ostersunds FK in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Norrby IF's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Norrby IF's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
31%
3.19
27%
3.64
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.41
1.30
Ostersunds FK xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
8%
11.77
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.30 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Norrby IF's recent record stands at 4W 9D 4L from 17 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ostersunds FK, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 5L across 17 games — 1.65 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ostersunds FK by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Norrby IF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Norrby IF have managed 3W 3D 2L from 8 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ostersunds FK's away record stands at 3W 2D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Norrby IF are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.53 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Norrby IF have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 4W 9D 4L in their last 17 games (1.24 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 8W 4D 5L in their last 17 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Norrby IF's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 1.50 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Norrby IF's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Norrby IF
2
Draws
1
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Ostersunds FK?
From 4 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 1, Ostersunds FK have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Norrby IF 2-2 Ostersunds FK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Norrby IF see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 62%, Ostersunds FK 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Norrby IF) and 38% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Norrby IF have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play Ostersunds FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Norrby IF's games and 62% of Ostersunds FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Norrby IF's recent games and 38% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norrby IF and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Norrby IF and Ostersunds FK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF and Ostersunds FK finished level at 2-2 at , Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.10 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.30 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Norrby IF beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 0.87 / defence 1.03 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.86 / defence 0.84, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 31% | Draw 27% | Ostersunds FK 41%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 47%, Ostersunds FK 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norrby IF's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ostersunds FK arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.