Gefle IF 0-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gefle IF at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Ostersunds FK travel to Gavlevallen to take on Gefle IF. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 24 September 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gefle IF — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gefle IF have posted 4W 3D 3L at Gavlevallen — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ostersunds FK stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gefle IF at 1.10 PPG versus Ostersunds FK's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Gefle IF have won 0, Ostersunds FK 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2024, ended 3–4 with Ostersunds FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Gefle IF in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Ostersunds FK in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gefle IF 57% versus Ostersunds FK 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gefle IF 58% | Ostersunds FK 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.85 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 1.120 / defence 1.337 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.804 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.204. Ostersunds FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Gefle IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Gefle IF games / 53 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 50% | Draw 24% | Ostersunds FK 26%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Ostersunds FK 3.85. Gefle IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gefle IF at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gefle IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gefle IF 70% | Ostersunds FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 50% | Draw 24% | Ostersunds FK 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Gefle IF 1.85 / Ostersunds FK 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 1.120 / def 1.337 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.804 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Gefle IF (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Ostersunds FK xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 24 September 2024 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Gefle IF 0 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 50% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gefle IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Gefle IF and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Ostersunds FK?
Record (3 meetings): Gefle IF 0W | Draws 2 | Ostersunds FK 1W.
What form are Gefle IF and Ostersunds FK in?
Gefle IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gefle IF's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Gefle IF's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gefle IF Win
50%
2.00
24%
4.16
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
3.15
1.29
Ostersunds FK xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
4%
24.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.29 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gefle IF come into this having played 53 games, going 15W 16D 22L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 1.30 PPG from 53 outings (17W 18D 18L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gefle IF on 1.15 PPG, Ostersunds FK on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gefle IF's home form reads 11W 7D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 0.88 points per game from 26 outings (5W 8D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ostersunds FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gefle IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gefle IF are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.28 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gefle IF and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Gefle IF have gone 15W 16D 22L in their last 53 games (1.15 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 17W 18D 18L in their last 53 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gefle IF at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Gefle IF's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gefle IF at home: 1.54 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Gefle IF's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Gefle IF
3
Draws
1
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Ostersunds FK?
From 4 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 0, Ostersunds FK have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 24 September 2024, when Gefle IF 0-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Gefle IF and Ostersunds FK?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gefle IF 62%, Ostersunds FK 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Gefle IF) and 38% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gefle IF play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Gefle IF's recent matches and 46% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gefle IF vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Gefle IF's recent games and 38% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gefle IF and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Gefle IF have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gefle IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 24, as Gefle IF and Ostersunds FK drew 0-0 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.85 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.29 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gefle IF fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Ostersunds FK landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 1.12 / defence 1.34 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.80 / defence 1.26, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 50% | Draw 24% | Ostersunds FK 26%, with Gefle IF to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gefle IF 58%, Ostersunds FK 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gefle IF's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gefle IF 1.15 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gefle IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.