Villarreal 2-0 Valencia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Villarreal at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Villarreal vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 33 as Villarreal welcome Valencia to Estadio de la Cerámica. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 19 April 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Villarreal — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Villarreal have posted 6W 3D 1L at Estadio de la Cerámica — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de la Cerámica.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valencia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Valencia have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Villarreal) versus 1.30 (Valencia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Villarreal, 1 for Valencia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Valencia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Valencia in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 44% versus Valencia 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 44% | Valencia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.79 xG and Valencia 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.341 / defence 1.007 | Valencia attack 0.895 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.111. Villarreal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.341 — their λ of 1.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Valencia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Villarreal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Villarreal games / 32 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 56% | Draw 23% | Valencia 21%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Valencia 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 50% | Valencia 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Apr 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 56% | Draw 23% | Valencia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Villarreal 1.79 / Valencia 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.341 / def 1.007 | Valencia attack 0.895 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Valencia xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Valencia kick off?
Villarreal vs Valencia kicked off at 20:30 on Tuesday 19 April 2022 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Valencia?
Villarreal 2 - 0 Valencia.
Where is Villarreal vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Valencia part of?
Villarreal vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 56% chance of winning, Valencia a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Villarreal and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Valencia?
Record (1 meetings): Villarreal 0W | Draws 0 | Valencia 1W.
What form are Villarreal and Valencia in?
Villarreal (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Valencia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Villarreal's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Valencia's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.32
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.79
1.00
Valencia xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
17%
5.99
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
3%
28.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.00 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Valencia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Villarreal come into this having played 32 games, going 13W 10D 9L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.31 PPG from 32 outings (10W 12D 10L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Villarreal on 1.53 PPG, Valencia on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Villarreal's home form reads 9W 5D 2L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Villarreal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 1.25 points per game from 16 outings (5W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Villarreal are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.38 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia in 69%.
Defensively: Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Current Season
Valencia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Valencia in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 13W 10D 9L in their last 32 games (1.53 PPG), while Valencia have gone 10W 12D 10L in their last 32 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Valencia away?
Villarreal's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 2.00 PPG; Valencia away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Villarreal or Valencia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Valencia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Villarreal have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Villarreal's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Villarreal
3
Draws
2
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Valencia?
From 10 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 5, Valencia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Villarreal 2-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Valencia?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 50%, Valencia 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Villarreal) and 56% (Valencia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Valencia in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Villarreal's games and 69% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Villarreal vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Villarreal's matches and 56% of Valencia's.
Do Villarreal and Valencia tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Valencia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Villarreal cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Valencia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Valencia 2-0 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.79 xG and Valencia 1.00 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Valencia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.34 / defence 1.01 against Valencia attack 0.90 / defence 1.21, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 56% | Draw 23% | Valencia 21%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 44%, Valencia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Valencia's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Villarreal 1.53 PPG, Valencia 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Villarreal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.