Villarreal 3-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Villarreal vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Villarreal welcome Mallorca to Estadio de la Cerámica. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Villarreal — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Villarreal have posted 6W 2D 2L at Estadio de la Cerámica — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Mallorca have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Villarreal have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Villarreal register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Mallorca in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Villarreal have won 0, Mallorca 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 50% versus Mallorca 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 50% | Mallorca 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 2.69 xG and Mallorca 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.461 / defence 1.252 | Mallorca attack 0.763 / defence 1.653. League average goals — home 1.114 / away 1.112. Villarreal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.461 — their λ of 2.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Mallorca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.653 — this is suppressing Villarreal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Villarreal games / 20 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 71% | Draw 17% | Mallorca 12%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | Mallorca 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.69 / 1.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 60% | Mallorca 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 71% | Draw 17% | Mallorca 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 62% | xG Villarreal 2.69 / Mallorca 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.461 / def 1.252 | Mallorca attack 0.763 / def 1.653 | league avg home 1.114 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.69
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Mallorca xG
62%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Mallorca kick off?
Villarreal vs Mallorca kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Villarreal 3 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Villarreal vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Mallorca part of?
Villarreal vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 71% chance of winning, Mallorca a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Villarreal and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Mallorca?
Record (1 meetings): Villarreal 0W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 0W.
What form are Villarreal and Mallorca in?
Villarreal (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Mallorca (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Villarreal's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (1.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.69. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.5%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
71%
1.41
17%
5.81
12%
8.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.69
Villarreal xG
Total xG
3.75
1.06
Mallorca xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.81
17%
Draw
8.52
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
7%
14.75
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
1%
125.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 2.69 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.06 for Mallorca, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Villarreal's recent record stands at 7W 7D 6L from 20 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca, meanwhile, have gone 4W 8D 8L across 20 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Villarreal on 1.40 PPG, Mallorca on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Villarreal have managed 6W 2D 2L from 10 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Villarreal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mallorca's away record stands at 2W 2D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Villarreal are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.85 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 7W 7D 6L in their last 20 games (1.40 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 4W 8D 8L in their last 20 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Mallorca away?
Villarreal's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 2.00 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Villarreal or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Mallorca in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Villarreal and Mallorca runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2025, when Villarreal won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Villarreal's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Villarreal
3
Draws
2
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 5, Mallorca have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Mallorca 1-1 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Mallorca?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 60%, Mallorca 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Villarreal and 50% for Mallorca. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Mallorca in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Mallorca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Villarreal's games and 60% of Mallorca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Villarreal vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Villarreal's matches and 50% of Mallorca's.
Do Villarreal and Mallorca tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Mallorca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Mallorca 3-0 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 2.69 xG and Mallorca 1.06 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mallorca landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.46 / defence 1.25 against Mallorca attack 0.76 / defence 1.65, drawn from 21/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 71% | Draw 17% | Mallorca 12%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 50%, Mallorca 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mallorca's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Villarreal 1.40 PPG, Mallorca 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Villarreal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.