Villarreal 5-0 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Villarreal vs Levante encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Levante make the trip to Estadio de la Cerámica to face Villarreal in La Liga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Monday 3 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Villarreal (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal at Estadio de la Cerámica this season: 5W 2D 2L from 9 home games — 1.89 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.11 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Levante's overall La Liga record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante's away record: 0W 2D 7L from 9 road trips in La Liga this season (0.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Villarreal's favour (1.40 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Villarreal — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Levante — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 50% versus Levante 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 44% | Levante 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 2.67 xG and Levante 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.390 / defence 1.330 | Levante attack 0.968 / defence 1.801. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.128. Villarreal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.390 — their λ of 2.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Levante bring a strong defensive rating of 1.801 — this is suppressing Villarreal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Villarreal games / 18 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 63% | Draw 19% | Levante 18%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.59 | Draw 5.26 | Levante 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.13. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.13 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.67 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Villarreal are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 56% | Levante 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Monday 3 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 63% | Draw 19% | Levante 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 72% | xG Villarreal 2.67 / Levante 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.390 / def 1.330 | Levante attack 0.968 / def 1.801 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.67
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Levante xG
72%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Levante kick off?
Villarreal vs Levante kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 3 January 2022 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Levante?
Villarreal 5 - 0 Levante.
Where is Villarreal vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Levante part of?
Villarreal vs Levante is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 63% chance of winning, Levante a 18% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Villarreal and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Levante?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Villarreal and Levante in?
Villarreal (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Levante (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Villarreal's attack at 1.39x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.80x — combine the two and it projects 2.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Levante's attack (0.97x) against Villarreal's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.5%), 1-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
63%
1.59
19%
5.36
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
6.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.67
Villarreal xG
Total xG
4.13
1.45
Levante xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.36
19%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.57
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
7%
14.50
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
1%
78.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 2.67 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.45 for Levante, a combined total of 4.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Levante?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Villarreal's recent record stands at 6W 7D 5L from 18 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levante, meanwhile, have gone 0W 8D 10L across 18 games — 0.44 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levante heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Villarreal have managed 5W 2D 2L from 9 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Villarreal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Levante's away record stands at 0W 2D 7L across 9 trips, a 0.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Villarreal are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.06 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Levante
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Levante in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 6W 7D 5L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while Levante have gone 0W 8D 10L in their last 18 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Levante away?
Villarreal's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 1.89 PPG; Levante away: 0.22 PPG.
Have Villarreal or Levante been keeping clean sheets recently?
Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Levante in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Villarreal have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 5-0 on 3 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Villarreal have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Levante — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Villarreal
0
Draws
1
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 3, Levante have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Villarreal 5-1 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Levante?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 56%, Levante 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Villarreal) and 56% (Levante). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Levante in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Levante?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Villarreal's games and 67% of Levante's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Villarreal vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Villarreal's matches and 56% of Levante's.
Do Villarreal and Levante tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Levante in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Levante.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Levante 5-0 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 2.67 xG and Levante 1.45 xG, a combined 4.13. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Levante landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.39 / defence 1.33 against Levante attack 0.97 / defence 1.80, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 63% | Draw 19% | Levante 18%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 44%, Levante 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Levante's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.