Villarreal 0-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Villarreal take on Granada CF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de la Cerámica plays host to Villarreal versus Granada CF in La Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Monday 16 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.03 xG and Granada CF 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Granada CF attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.050 / away 1.244. Data: 0 Villarreal games / 0 Granada CF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Villarreal 27% | Draw 37% | Granada CF 36%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 3.70 | Draw 2.70 | Granada CF 2.78. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Monday 16 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 27% | Draw 37% | Granada CF 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Villarreal 1.03 / Granada CF 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Granada CF attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.050 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Granada CF xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Granada CF kick off?
Villarreal vs Granada CF kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 16 August 2021 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Granada CF?
Villarreal 0 - 0 Granada CF.
Where is Villarreal vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Granada CF part of?
Villarreal vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 27% chance of winning, Granada CF a 36% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Villarreal and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Granada CF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Villarreal and Granada CF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Villarreal's attack at 0.85x the league average against Granada CF's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Granada CF's attack (0.85x) against Villarreal's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
The sample (0/0 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.71
37%
2.73
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.24
1.22
Granada CF xG
3.71
27%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
8%
12.50
13%
7.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.3 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.22 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Granada CF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Pre-Season
Granada CF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Villarreal go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 5-1 on 3 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Villarreal have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Granada CF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Villarreal
1
Draws
0
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 3, Granada CF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2024, when Villarreal 5-1 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Granada CF?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Villarreal's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal and Granada CF finished level at 0-0 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.03 xG and Granada CF 1.22 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Villarreal fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Granada CF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Granada CF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 27% | Draw 37% | Granada CF 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.