Villarreal 3-3 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Villarreal vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Cadiz travel to Estadio de la Cerámica to take on Villarreal. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 26 October 2021, 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Villarreal have gone 2W 5D 2L from 9 outings — a 1.22 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 0.78 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.78 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 9 games (56%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 1L across 4 games at Estadio de la Cerámica this term (1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de la Cerámica. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.22 — Villarreal are significantly better at Estadio de la Cerámica than their overall form suggests.
Cadiz — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz's away record: 1W 1D 2L from 4 road trips in La Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Villarreal are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 0.52 PPG ahead (1.22 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Cadiz in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 44% versus Cadiz 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Villarreal 44% | Cadiz 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.61 xG and Cadiz 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.152 / defence 1.042 | Cadiz attack 0.822 / defence 1.333. League average goals — home 1.050 / away 1.061. Cadiz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.333 — this is suppressing Villarreal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Villarreal games / 10 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 53% | Draw 26% | Cadiz 20%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Cadiz 5.00. Villarreal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Villarreal 50% | Cadiz 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Oct 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 53% | Draw 26% | Cadiz 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Villarreal 1.61 / Cadiz 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.152 / def 1.042 | Cadiz attack 0.822 / def 1.333 | league avg home 1.050 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Cadiz xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Cadiz kick off?
Villarreal vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:30 on Tuesday 26 October 2021 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Cadiz?
Villarreal 3 - 3 Cadiz.
Where is Villarreal vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Cadiz part of?
Villarreal vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 53% chance of winning, Cadiz a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Villarreal and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Cadiz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Villarreal and Cadiz in?
Villarreal (all comps): 2W-5D-2L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 0.78 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Cadiz (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Villarreal's attack at 1.15x the league average against Cadiz's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.79
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.52
0.91
Cadiz xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
4%
24.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Villarreal and 0.91 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Villarreal's recent record stands at 2W 5D 2L from 9 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cadiz, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 5L across 9 games — 0.67 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cadiz heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Villarreal have managed 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Villarreal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cadiz's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Villarreal are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.67 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 2W 5D 2L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Cadiz away?
Villarreal's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 1.75 PPG; Cadiz away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Villarreal or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Cadiz in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Villarreal's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Villarreal
3
Draws
2
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 1, Cadiz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Villarreal 0-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Cadiz?
Cadiz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 50%, Cadiz 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Villarreal) and 50% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Cadiz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Villarreal's games and 75% of Cadiz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Villarreal vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Villarreal's recent games and 50% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Villarreal and Cadiz tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Villarreal and Cadiz share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal and Cadiz finished level at 3-3 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.61 xG and Cadiz 0.91 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cadiz outscored their 0.91 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.15 / defence 1.04 against Cadiz attack 0.82 / defence 1.33, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 53% | Draw 26% | Cadiz 20%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 44%, Cadiz 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Cadiz's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cadiz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.