Valladolid 1-0 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valladolid vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla plays host to Valladolid versus Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 29 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valladolid have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valladolid at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla this season: 4W 1D 4L from 9 home games — 1.44 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.44 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Valladolid are significantly better at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla than their overall form suggests.
Valencia (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Valladolid, 1.00 for Valencia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Valladolid goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 61% of games.
Valencia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valladolid 28% versus Valencia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 44% | Valencia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 0.98 xG and Valencia 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.738 / defence 1.080 | Valencia attack 1.058 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.001. Valladolid's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Valladolid games / 55 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 31% | Draw 30% | Valencia 39%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Valencia 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valencia at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Valladolid 22% | Valencia 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 31% | Draw 30% | Valencia 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Valladolid 0.98 / Valencia 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.738 / def 1.080 | Valencia attack 1.058 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Valencia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Valencia xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Valencia kick off?
Valladolid vs Valencia kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Valencia?
Valladolid 1 - 0 Valencia.
Where is Valladolid vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Valencia part of?
Valladolid vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 31% chance of winning, Valencia a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Valladolid and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Valencia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valladolid and Valencia in?
Valladolid (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Valencia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Valladolid's attack rating (0.74) and Valencia's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valencia's attack (1.06x) against Valladolid's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 18/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
31%
3.21
30%
3.38
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Valladolid xG
Total xG
2.13
1.14
Valencia xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
10%
10.09
15%
6.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.6 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Valladolid and 1.14 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Valladolid come into this having played 18 games, going 5W 2D 11L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Valladolid against 1.28 for Valencia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Valladolid's home form reads 3W 1D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Valladolid are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valencia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valladolid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Valladolid are averaging 0.72 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.50 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valladolid have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Valencia in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 5W 2D 11L in their last 18 games (0.94 PPG), while Valencia have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valladolid at home or Valencia away?
Valladolid's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valladolid at home: 1.43 PPG; Valencia away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valladolid have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Valencia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Valladolid
0
Draws
2
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Valencia?
From 4 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 2, Valencia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Valencia 2-1 Valladolid.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valladolid see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valladolid 29%, Valencia 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Valladolid) and 57% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Valladolid have failed to score in 57% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 29% of Valladolid's games and 86% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valladolid vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Valladolid's recent games and 57% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valladolid and Valencia tend to score early?
Valladolid have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Valencia in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valladolid defy the odds to beat Valencia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valladolid beat Valencia 1-0 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 0.98 xG and Valencia 1.14 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valencia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.74 / defence 1.08 against Valencia attack 1.06 / defence 1.05, drawn from 18/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 31% | Draw 30% | Valencia 39%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Valladolid win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 44%, Valencia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (18 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not.
Valencia's trading profile (18 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valladolid 0.94 PPG, Valencia 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valladolid win broke the near-deadlock. Valladolid (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.