Valladolid 2-1 Espanyol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Espanyol at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valladolid vs Espanyol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Espanyol make the trip to Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla to face Valladolid in La Liga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Valladolid (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valladolid have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Valladolid are significantly better at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla than their overall form suggests.
Espanyol's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Espanyol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Espanyol's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Espanyol arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Valladolid lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Espanyol winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Valladolid — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 27% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Espanyol — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valladolid 26% versus Espanyol 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 44% | Espanyol 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 0.88 xG and Espanyol 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.672 / defence 0.939 | Espanyol attack 1.055 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.006. Valladolid's attack strength of 0.672 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Valladolid games / 61 Espanyol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 31% | Draw 32% | Espanyol 37%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Espanyol 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Espanyol as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Espanyol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.88 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Valladolid 20% | Espanyol 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Espanyol | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 31% | Draw 32% | Espanyol 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Valladolid 0.88 / Espanyol 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.672 / def 0.939 | Espanyol attack 1.055 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.006 • Poisson stance: Espanyol (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Espanyol xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Espanyol kick off?
Valladolid vs Espanyol kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Espanyol?
Valladolid 2 - 1 Espanyol.
Where is Valladolid vs Espanyol being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Espanyol part of?
Valladolid vs Espanyol is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Espanyol?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 31% chance of winning, Espanyol a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Espanyol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Espanyol?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Valladolid and Espanyol will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Espanyol?
Record (1 meetings): Valladolid 0W | Draws 0 | Espanyol 1W.
What form are Valladolid and Espanyol in?
Valladolid (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Espanyol (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Valladolid's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Espanyol's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — Espanyol's attack (1.05x) against Valladolid's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 23/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Espanyol Win
31%
3.23
32%
3.13
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Valladolid xG
Total xG
1.88
1.00
Espanyol xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
11%
8.73
15%
6.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 15.2 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Espanyol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Espanyol expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Valladolid and 1.00 for Espanyol, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Espanyol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Valladolid have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 7W 3D 13L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Espanyol's form line: 6W 9D 8L from 23 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Espanyol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Valladolid against 1.17 for Espanyol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Valladolid have posted 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Valladolid are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Espanyol have gone 3W 5D 3L from 11 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Valladolid are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Espanyol are on 1.26 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valladolid have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games; Espanyol in 70%.
Last 23 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Blended
Espanyol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Espanyol in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 7W 3D 13L in their last 23 games (1.04 PPG), while Espanyol have gone 6W 9D 8L in their last 23 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valladolid at home or Espanyol away?
Valladolid's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valladolid at home: 1.55 PPG; Espanyol away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valladolid have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Espanyol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Valladolid
0
Draws
2
Espanyol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Espanyol?
From 4 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 2, Espanyol have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Espanyol last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2025, when Espanyol 2-1 Valladolid.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valladolid tend to start slowly — only 27% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Espanyol see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valladolid 18%, Espanyol 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Valladolid) and 46% (Espanyol).
On the defensive side: Valladolid keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Valladolid have failed to score in 54% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Espanyol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Espanyol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of Valladolid's recent matches and 73% of Espanyol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valladolid vs Espanyol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Valladolid's recent games and 46% of Espanyol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valladolid and Espanyol tend to score early?
Valladolid have had a goal before half-time in 27% of their recent matches, Espanyol in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valladolid defy the odds to beat Espanyol 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valladolid beat Espanyol 2-1 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 0.88 xG and Espanyol 1.00 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Valladolid beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.67 / defence 0.94 against Espanyol attack 1.05 / defence 0.96, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 31% | Draw 32% | Espanyol 37%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Valladolid win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 44%, Espanyol 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did.
Espanyol's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valladolid 1.04 PPG, Espanyol 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valladolid win broke the near-deadlock. Valladolid (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.