Valencia 3-0 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Valencia at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Real Betis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valencia host Real Betis at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 10 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Valencia — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia's home record at Estadio de Mestalla: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Betis stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Real Betis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Real Betis have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Valencia 1.30 PPG, Real Betis 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Valencia have won 0, Real Betis 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2022, ended 0–3 with Real Betis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Valencia in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Real Betis in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 63% versus Real Betis 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 51% | Real Betis 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 0.97 xG and Real Betis 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 1.073 / defence 1.004 | Real Betis attack 0.867 / defence 0.665. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.119. Real Betis's defence strength of 0.665 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Valencia games / 51 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 34% | Draw 31% | Real Betis 34%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Real Betis 2.94. The draw (31%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 31% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 40% | Real Betis 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 34% | Draw 31% | Real Betis 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Valencia 0.97 / Real Betis 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 1.073 / def 1.004 | Real Betis attack 0.867 / def 0.665 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Draw (31%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Real Betis xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Real Betis kick off?
Valencia vs Real Betis kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 10 November 2022 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Real Betis?
Valencia 3 - 0 Real Betis.
Where is Valencia vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Real Betis part of?
Valencia vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 34% chance of winning, Real Betis a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Valencia and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Real Betis?
Record (2 meetings): Valencia 0W | Draws 0 | Real Betis 2W.
What form are Valencia and Real Betis in?
Valencia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Real Betis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valencia's attack rating (1.07) and Real Betis's defence rating (0.67), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Real Betis's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
34%
2.91
31%
3.19
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Valencia xG
Total xG
1.95
0.97
Real Betis xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
13%
7.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 13.9 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Valencia and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Valencia and 0.97 for Real Betis, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 15W 19D 17L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Betis's form line: 26W 11D 14L from 51 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Real Betis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Real Betis are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valencia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.32 PPG from 25 outings (8W 9D 8L).
On the road, Real Betis have gone 11W 8D 6L from 25 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Valencia are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.55 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Real Betis in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Real Betis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 15W 19D 17L in their last 51 games (1.25 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 26W 11D 14L in their last 51 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Real Betis away?
Real Betis's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.32 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Valencia or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Real Betis in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2021, when Real Betis won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valencia's record when hosting Real Betis specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Valencia
3
Draws
5
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Real Betis?
From 10 meetings on record, Valencia have won 2, Real Betis have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Real Betis 2-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valencia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Real Betis see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 60%, Real Betis 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Valencia) and 48% (Real Betis).
On the defensive side: Real Betis in 44%; Real Betis in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Real Betis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Valencia's recent matches and 44% of Real Betis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Valencia's recent games and 48% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Valencia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Real Betis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Real Betis 3-0 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 0.97 xG and Real Betis 0.97 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Valencia beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Real Betis landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against Real Betis attack 0.87 / defence 0.67, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 34% | Draw 31% | Real Betis 34%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 51%, Real Betis 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Real Betis's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Valencia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Real Betis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.