Valencia 0-3 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Real Betis at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Real Betis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valencia host Real Betis at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 10 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Valencia — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Valencia's home record at Estadio de Mestalla: 2W 5D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Betis stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Real Betis have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Valencia 1.40 PPG, Real Betis 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Valencia register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Real Betis in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Valencia have won 0, Real Betis 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2021, ended 1–4 with Real Betis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Valencia in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Real Betis in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 66% versus Real Betis 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 51% | Real Betis 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 0.89 xG and Real Betis 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.863 / defence 1.228 | Real Betis attack 0.952 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.112. Data: 35 Valencia games / 35 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 25% | Draw 31% | Real Betis 45%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Real Betis 2.22. Real Betis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Betis at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Betis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Valencia 80% | Real Betis 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 25% | Draw 31% | Real Betis 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Valencia 0.89 / Real Betis 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.863 / def 1.228 | Real Betis attack 0.952 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.076 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Real Betis xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Real Betis kick off?
Valencia vs Real Betis kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 10 May 2022 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Real Betis?
Valencia 0 - 3 Real Betis.
Where is Valencia vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Real Betis part of?
Valencia vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 25% chance of winning, Real Betis a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Valencia and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Real Betis?
Record (1 meetings): Valencia 0W | Draws 0 | Real Betis 1W.
What form are Valencia and Real Betis in?
Valencia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Real Betis (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valencia's attack rating (0.86) and Real Betis's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Real Betis's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
25%
4.07
31%
3.27
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.19
1.30
Real Betis xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
7%
14.93
18%
5.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 14.5 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Valencia and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Valencia and 1.30 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 10W 14D 11L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Real Betis's form line: 17W 7D 11L from 35 games, 1.66 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valencia on 1.26 PPG, Real Betis on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.35 PPG from 17 outings (5W 8D 4L).
On the road, Real Betis have gone 8W 5D 4L from 17 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Valencia are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.63 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Current Season
Real Betis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 10W 14D 11L in their last 35 games (1.26 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 17W 7D 11L in their last 35 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Real Betis away?
Real Betis's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.35 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Valencia or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Real Betis in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2021, when Real Betis won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valencia's record when hosting Real Betis specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Valencia
3
Draws
5
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Real Betis?
From 10 meetings on record, Valencia have won 2, Real Betis have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Real Betis 2-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valencia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 71%, Real Betis 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Valencia) and 53% (Real Betis).
On the defensive side: Real Betis in 35%; Real Betis in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Real Betis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Valencia's games and 53% of Real Betis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valencia vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Valencia's recent games and 53% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Real Betis tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Real Betis in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Real Betis run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Valencia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Valencia 0-3 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 0.89 xG and Real Betis 1.30 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Valencia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Real Betis outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.86 / defence 1.23 against Real Betis attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 25% | Draw 31% | Real Betis 45%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 51%, Real Betis 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Real Betis's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.26 PPG, Real Betis 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Betis win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Betis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.