Valencia 1-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 39%, yet in-form Osasuna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Valencia vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valencia host Osasuna at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 March 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Valencia — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Estadio de Mestalla this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Valencia are significantly better at Estadio de Mestalla than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Osasuna — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Valencia, 1 for Osasuna and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Valencia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Valencia trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Osasuna trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 56% versus Osasuna 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 48% | Osasuna 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.16 xG and Osasuna 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.974 / defence 1.068 | Osasuna attack 0.950 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 0.975. Data: 62 Valencia games / 62 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 39% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 31%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Osasuna 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Osasuna (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valencia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Valencia 50% | Osasuna 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 39% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Valencia 1.16 / Osasuna 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.974 / def 1.068 | Osasuna attack 0.950 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.374 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Valencia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Osasuna xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Osasuna kick off?
Valencia vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Osasuna?
Valencia 1 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Valencia vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Osasuna part of?
Valencia vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 39% chance of winning, Osasuna a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Valencia and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Osasuna?
Record (3 meetings): Valencia 2W | Draws 0 | Osasuna 1W.
What form are Valencia and Osasuna in?
Valencia (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Osasuna (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valencia's attack rating (0.97) and Osasuna's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
39%
2.53
29%
3.40
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.14
0.99
Osasuna xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
10%
10.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Valencia and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Valencia and 0.99 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valencia come into this having played 62 games, going 17W 20D 25L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.31 PPG from 62 outings (21W 18D 23L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valencia on 1.15 PPG, Osasuna on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Valencia's home form reads 11W 10D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.29 points per game from 31 outings (10W 10D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Valencia are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 0.95 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 62 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 17W 20D 25L in their last 62 games (1.15 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 21W 18D 23L in their last 62 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Osasuna away?
Valencia's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.39 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Valencia or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Osasuna in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Valencia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valencia's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Valencia
2
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Valencia have won 5, Osasuna have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Valencia 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Osasuna?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valencia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 55%, Osasuna 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Valencia) and 29% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Osasuna in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Valencia's recent matches and 42% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Valencia's recent games and 29% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Osasuna tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valencia edge out Osasuna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Osasuna 1-0 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.16 xG and Osasuna 0.99 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Osasuna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.97 / defence 1.07 against Osasuna attack 0.95 / defence 0.86, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 39% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 31%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 48%, Osasuna 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Osasuna's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.15 PPG, Osasuna 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.