Valencia 1-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valencia host Osasuna at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Valencia — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Valencia's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Estadio de Mestalla this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Osasuna's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Valencia at 1.30 PPG versus Osasuna's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Valencia, 0 for Osasuna and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 4–1 with Valencia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Valencia trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Osasuna trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 68% versus Osasuna 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 55% | Osasuna 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.36 xG and Osasuna 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.891 / defence 1.233 | Osasuna attack 0.790 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.044. Osasuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Valencia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Valencia games / 31 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 44% | Draw 28% | Osasuna 28%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Osasuna 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valencia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 70% | Osasuna 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 44% | Draw 28% | Osasuna 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Valencia 1.36 / Osasuna 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.891 / def 1.233 | Osasuna attack 0.790 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Valencia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Osasuna xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Osasuna kick off?
Valencia vs Osasuna kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Osasuna?
Valencia 1 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Valencia vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Osasuna part of?
Valencia vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 44% chance of winning, Osasuna a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Valencia and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Osasuna?
Record (1 meetings): Valencia 1W | Draws 0 | Osasuna 0W.
What form are Valencia and Osasuna in?
Valencia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Osasuna (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valencia's attack rating (0.89) and Osasuna's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.56
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.38
1.02
Osasuna xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Valencia and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Valencia and 1.02 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valencia come into this having played 31 games, going 10W 12D 9L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.32 PPG from 31 outings (11W 8D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valencia on 1.35 PPG, Osasuna on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Valencia's home form reads 5W 7D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.33 points per game from 15 outings (6W 2D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Valencia are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.00 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Osasuna in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 10W 12D 9L in their last 31 games (1.35 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 11W 8D 12L in their last 31 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Osasuna away?
Valencia's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.47 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Valencia or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Osasuna in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Valencia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valencia's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Valencia
2
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Valencia have won 5, Osasuna have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Valencia 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Osasuna?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 67%, Osasuna 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Valencia) and 40% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Osasuna in 33%; Osasuna in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Valencia's recent matches and 27% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Valencia's recent games and 40% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Osasuna tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osasuna defy the odds to beat Valencia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Valencia 1-2 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.36 xG and Osasuna 1.02 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Osasuna outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.89 / defence 1.23 against Osasuna attack 0.79 / defence 1.34, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 44% | Draw 28% | Osasuna 28%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Osasuna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 55%, Osasuna 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Osasuna's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.35 PPG, Osasuna 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.