Valencia 3-1 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Granada CF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Granada CF travel to Estadio de Mestalla to take on Valencia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valencia stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valencia have posted 2W 6D 2L at Estadio de Mestalla — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Granada CF have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Valencia 1.10 PPG, Granada CF 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Valencia, 0 for Granada CF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Valencia in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Granada CF in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valencia 73% and Granada CF 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 62% | Granada CF 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.29 xG and Granada CF 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.887 / defence 1.392 | Granada CF attack 0.723 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.109. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing Valencia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Valencia games / 26 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 39% | Draw 30% | Granada CF 31%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Granada CF 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valencia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Valencia 80% | Granada CF 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 39% | Draw 30% | Granada CF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Valencia 1.29 / Granada CF 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.887 / def 1.392 | Granada CF attack 0.723 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Valencia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Granada CF xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Granada CF kick off?
Valencia vs Granada CF kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Granada CF?
Valencia 3 - 1 Granada CF.
Where is Valencia vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Granada CF part of?
Valencia vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 39% chance of winning, Granada CF a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Valencia and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Granada CF?
Record (1 meetings): Valencia 0W | Draws 1 | Granada CF 0W.
What form are Valencia and Granada CF in?
Valencia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Granada CF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valencia's attack rating (0.89) and Granada CF's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
39%
2.54
30%
3.35
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.41
1.12
Granada CF xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
8%
11.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Valencia and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Valencia and 1.12 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Granada CF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 8W 9D 9L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Granada CF's form line: 5W 10D 11L from 26 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valencia on 1.27 PPG, Granada CF on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.38 PPG from 13 outings (4W 6D 3L).
On the road, Granada CF have gone 1W 6D 6L from 13 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valencia are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.04 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Granada CF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 8W 9D 9L in their last 26 games (1.27 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 5W 10D 11L in their last 26 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Granada CF away?
Valencia's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.38 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Valencia have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Valencia's record when hosting Granada CF specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Valencia
1
Draws
0
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Valencia have won 3, Granada CF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2024, when Granada CF 0-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Granada CF?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 69%, Granada CF 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Valencia) and 31% (Granada CF).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Granada CF in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Valencia's recent matches and 38% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Valencia's recent games and 31% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Granada CF tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valencia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Granada CF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Granada CF 3-1 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 27, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.29 xG and Granada CF 1.12 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Valencia beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.89 / defence 1.39 against Granada CF attack 0.72 / defence 1.27, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 39% | Draw 30% | Granada CF 31%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 62%, Granada CF 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Granada CF's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.27 PPG, Granada CF 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm. Granada CF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.