Valencia 1-0 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valencia host Girona at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Valencia — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Valencia haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Valencia at Estadio de Mestalla this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.45 xG and Girona 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.960 / defence 1.047 | Girona attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.122. Data: 38 Valencia games / 0 Girona games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Valencia 46% | Draw 29% | Girona 25%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Girona 4.00. Valencia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valencia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 46% | Draw 29% | Girona 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Valencia 1.45 / Girona 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.960 / def 1.047 | Girona attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Valencia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Girona xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Girona kick off?
Valencia vs Girona kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Girona?
Valencia 1 - 0 Girona.
Where is Valencia vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Girona part of?
Valencia vs Girona is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 46% chance of winning, Girona a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Valencia and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Girona?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valencia and Girona in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Valencia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Valencia's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
46%
2.15
29%
3.47
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.45
1.00
Girona xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
6%
17.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Valencia and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Valencia and 1.00 for Girona, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Pre-Season
Girona
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Valencia's record when hosting Girona specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Valencia
1
Draws
4
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Girona?
From 8 meetings on record, Valencia have won 3, Girona have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Valencia 2-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Valencia edge out Girona 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Girona 1-0 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.45 xG and Girona 1.00 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Girona landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.96 / defence 1.05 against Girona attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 46% | Draw 29% | Girona 25%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.