Valencia 1-2 Espanyol – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Valencia at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Espanyol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Mestalla plays host to Valencia versus Espanyol in La Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Friday 31 December 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valencia have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valencia have posted 4W 4D 1L at Estadio de Mestalla — 1.78 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Espanyol (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Espanyol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Espanyol away from home this season: 0W 3D 6L from 9 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Valencia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Espanyol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 72% versus Espanyol 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 61% | Espanyol 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.65 xG and Espanyol 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 1.125 / defence 1.201 | Espanyol attack 0.679 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.145. Espanyol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.332 — this is suppressing Valencia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Valencia games / 18 Espanyol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 53% | Draw 27% | Espanyol 20%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Espanyol 5.00. Valencia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valencia at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 67% | Espanyol 44% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Espanyol | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Friday 31 Dec 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 53% | Draw 27% | Espanyol 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Valencia 1.65 / Espanyol 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 1.125 / def 1.201 | Espanyol attack 0.679 / def 1.332 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Valencia (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Espanyol xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Espanyol kick off?
Valencia vs Espanyol kicked off at 15:15 on Friday 31 December 2021 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Espanyol?
Valencia 1 - 2 Espanyol.
Where is Valencia vs Espanyol being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Espanyol part of?
Valencia vs Espanyol is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Espanyol?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 53% chance of winning, Espanyol a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Espanyol?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Valencia and Espanyol will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Espanyol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valencia and Espanyol in?
Valencia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Espanyol (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Valencia's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Espanyol's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Espanyol's attack (0.68x) against Valencia's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
53%
1.89
27%
3.66
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.58
0.93
Espanyol xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
4%
26.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.6 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Espanyol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Valencia and Espanyol expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Valencia and 0.93 for Espanyol, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Espanyol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Valencia's recent record stands at 7W 7D 4L from 18 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Espanyol, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 7L across 18 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Espanyol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Valencia against 1.28 for Espanyol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Valencia have managed 4W 4D 1L from 9 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Espanyol's away record stands at 0W 3D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Espanyol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Valencia are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Espanyol are on 1.11 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Espanyol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Espanyol in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 7W 7D 4L in their last 18 games (1.56 PPG), while Espanyol have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Espanyol away?
Valencia's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.78 PPG; Espanyol away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Valencia or Espanyol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Espanyol in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Espanyol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Valencia
6
Draws
1
Espanyol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Espanyol?
From 8 meetings on record, Valencia have won 1, Espanyol have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Espanyol last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Valencia 3-2 Espanyol.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 67%, Espanyol 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Valencia) and 44% (Espanyol).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Espanyol in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Espanyol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Espanyol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Valencia's games and 44% of Espanyol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valencia vs Espanyol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Valencia's recent games and 44% of Espanyol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Espanyol tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Espanyol in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Espanyol defy the odds to beat Valencia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Espanyol beat Valencia 1-2 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.65 xG and Espanyol 0.93 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Espanyol outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 1.12 / defence 1.20 against Espanyol attack 0.68 / defence 1.33, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 53% | Draw 27% | Espanyol 20%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Espanyol win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 61%, Espanyol 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Espanyol's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.56 PPG, Espanyol 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Espanyol win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Espanyol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.