Valencia 2-0 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Mestalla plays host to Valencia versus Celta Vigo in La Liga, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Valencia's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Valencia's home record at Estadio de Mestalla: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Celta Vigo (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Celta Vigo have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Valencia 1W, Celta Vigo 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 2–1 with Valencia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Valencia half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Celta Vigo half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 65% versus Celta Vigo 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 51% | Celta Vigo 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 0.92 xG and Celta Vigo 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.788 / defence 1.364 | Celta Vigo attack 0.749 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.112. Valencia's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Valencia games / 37 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 28% | Draw 33% | Celta Vigo 39%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Celta Vigo 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Celta Vigo at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Valencia 70% | Celta Vigo 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 28% | Draw 33% | Celta Vigo 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Valencia 0.92 / Celta Vigo 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.788 / def 1.364 | Celta Vigo attack 0.749 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Celta Vigo xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Valencia vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Celta Vigo?
Valencia 2 - 0 Celta Vigo.
Where is Valencia vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Celta Vigo part of?
Valencia vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 28% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Valencia and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Celta Vigo?
Record (1 meetings): Valencia 1W | Draws 0 | Celta Vigo 0W.
What form are Valencia and Celta Vigo in?
Valencia (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Valencia's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Celta Vigo's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Celta Vigo's attack (0.75x) against Valencia's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
28%
3.60
33%
3.00
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.06
1.14
Celta Vigo xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
9%
11.19
15%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 14.5 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Valencia and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Valencia and 1.14 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 10W 15D 12L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Celta Vigo's form line: 12W 10D 15L from 37 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Valencia against 1.24 for Celta Vigo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (5W 8D 5L).
On the road, Celta Vigo have gone 5W 6D 7L from 18 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valencia are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.16 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Celta Vigo in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Current Season
Celta Vigo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 10W 15D 12L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 12W 10D 15L in their last 37 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Celta Vigo away?
Valencia's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.28 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Valencia or Celta Vigo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Celta Vigo in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Celta Vigo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valencia won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Valencia
2
Draws
3
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Celta Vigo?
From 10 meetings on record, Valencia have won 5, Celta Vigo have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Valencia 2-3 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Celta Vigo?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valencia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Celta Vigo see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 67%, Celta Vigo 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Valencia) and 28% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo in 44%; Celta Vigo in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Celta Vigo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Valencia's recent matches and 28% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Valencia's recent games and 28% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Valencia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Celta Vigo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Celta Vigo 2-0 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 0.92 xG and Celta Vigo 1.14 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Valencia beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Celta Vigo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.79 / defence 1.36 against Celta Vigo attack 0.75 / defence 1.08, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 28% | Draw 33% | Celta Vigo 39%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Valencia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 51%, Celta Vigo 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.22 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.