Valencia 0-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Mestalla plays host to Valencia versus Cadiz in La Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 6 January 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valencia have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia at Estadio de Mestalla this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cadiz (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cadiz have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Valencia, 1.20 for Cadiz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Valencia 0W, Cadiz 0W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Valencia — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Cadiz — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 62% versus Cadiz 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 53% | Cadiz 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.74 xG and Cadiz 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 1.164 / defence 0.970 | Cadiz attack 0.816 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.071. Data: 53 Valencia games / 53 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 58% | Draw 25% | Cadiz 17%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Cadiz 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Valencia (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 30% | Cadiz 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Friday 6 Jan 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 58% | Draw 25% | Cadiz 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Valencia 1.74 / Cadiz 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 1.164 / def 0.970 | Cadiz attack 0.816 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Valencia (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Cadiz xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Cadiz kick off?
Valencia vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 6 January 2023 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Cadiz?
Valencia 0 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Valencia vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Cadiz part of?
Valencia vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 58% chance of winning, Cadiz a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Valencia and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Cadiz?
Record (2 meetings): Valencia 0W | Draws 2 | Cadiz 0W.
What form are Valencia and Cadiz in?
Valencia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Cadiz (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Valencia's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Cadiz's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.82x) against Valencia's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
58%
1.73
25%
3.99
17%
5.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.59
0.85
Cadiz xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
5.82
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
3%
33.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.1 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Valencia and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Valencia and 0.85 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Cadiz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 16W 19D 18L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cadiz's form line: 10W 21D 22L from 53 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Valencia against 0.96 for Cadiz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.38 PPG from 26 outings (9W 9D 8L).
On the road, Cadiz have gone 6W 8D 12L from 26 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Valencia are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.85 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 16W 19D 18L in their last 53 games (1.26 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 10W 21D 22L in their last 53 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Cadiz away?
Valencia's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.38 PPG; Cadiz away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Valencia or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Cadiz in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Valencia go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valencia won 1-4 on 14 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Valencia
2
Draws
2
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Valencia have won 2, Cadiz have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when Cadiz 1-4 Valencia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valencia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 58%, Cadiz 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Valencia) and 42% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Cadiz in 35%; Cadiz in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Valencia's recent matches and 42% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Valencia's recent games and 42% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Cadiz tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cadiz defy the odds to beat Valencia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz beat Valencia 0-1 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.74 xG and Cadiz 0.85 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valencia fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 1.16 / defence 0.97 against Cadiz attack 0.82 / defence 1.12, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 58% | Draw 25% | Cadiz 17%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Cadiz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 53%, Cadiz 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Cadiz's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.26 PPG, Cadiz 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cadiz win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. Cadiz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.