Valencia 0-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Mestalla plays host to Valencia versus Cadiz in La Liga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 3 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valencia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Valencia at Estadio de Mestalla this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cadiz (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Cadiz have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Valencia, 1.30 for Cadiz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Valencia 0W, Cadiz 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Valencia — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Cadiz — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 69% versus Cadiz 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 59% | Cadiz 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.41 xG and Cadiz 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 1.004 / defence 1.328 | Cadiz attack 0.717 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.085. Cadiz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Valencia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Valencia games / 29 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 45% | Draw 28% | Cadiz 27%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Cadiz 3.70. Valencia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Valencia 80% | Cadiz 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 45% | Draw 28% | Cadiz 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Valencia 1.41 / Cadiz 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 1.004 / def 1.328 | Cadiz attack 0.717 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Valencia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Cadiz xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Cadiz kick off?
Valencia vs Cadiz kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Cadiz?
Valencia 0 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Valencia vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Cadiz part of?
Valencia vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 45% chance of winning, Cadiz a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Valencia and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Cadiz?
Record (1 meetings): Valencia 0W | Draws 1 | Cadiz 0W.
What form are Valencia and Cadiz in?
Valencia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Cadiz (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Valencia's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Cadiz's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.72x) against Valencia's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.55
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.44
1.03
Cadiz xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
7%
15.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Valencia and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Valencia and 1.03 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 10W 10D 9L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Cadiz's form line: 5W 12D 12L from 29 games, 0.93 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Valencia are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cadiz.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.50 PPG from 14 outings (5W 6D 3L).
On the road, Cadiz have gone 3W 4D 7L from 14 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Valencia are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.86 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Current Season
Cadiz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 10W 10D 9L in their last 29 games (1.38 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 5W 12D 12L in their last 29 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Cadiz away?
Valencia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.50 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Valencia or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cadiz in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Valencia go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valencia won 1-4 on 14 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Valencia
2
Draws
2
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Valencia have won 2, Cadiz have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when Cadiz 1-4 Valencia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 71%, Cadiz 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Valencia) and 50% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Cadiz in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Cadiz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Valencia's games and 50% of Cadiz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valencia vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Valencia's recent games and 50% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Cadiz tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valencia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 30, as Valencia and Cadiz drew 0-0 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.41 xG and Cadiz 1.03 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valencia fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Cadiz landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 1.00 / defence 1.33 against Cadiz attack 0.72 / defence 1.23, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 45% | Draw 28% | Cadiz 27%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 59%, Cadiz 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cadiz's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Valencia arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.