Valencia 3-3 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Valencia at 44%, yet in-form Atletico Madrid provide a compelling counter-argument — this Valencia vs Atletico Madrid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atletico Madrid make the trip to Estadio de Mestalla to face Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 November 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valencia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia at Estadio de Mestalla this season: 3W 2D 1L from 6 home games — 1.83 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de Mestalla. Their home PPG of 1.83 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Valencia are significantly better at Estadio de Mestalla than their overall form suggests.
Atletico Madrid's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Atletico Madrid have posted 3W 1D 1L from 5 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Atletico Madrid are 0.70 PPG clear of Valencia in recent La Liga fixtures (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Valencia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Atletico Madrid goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valencia 73% and Atletico Madrid 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 64% | Atletico Madrid 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.54 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 1.147 / defence 1.119 | Atletico Madrid attack 0.994 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.059 / away 1.063. Atletico Madrid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Valencia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Valencia games / 11 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 44% | Draw 29% | Atletico Madrid 27%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Atletico Madrid 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atletico Madrid (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 50% | Atletico Madrid 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 44% | Draw 29% | Atletico Madrid 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Valencia 1.54 / Atletico Madrid 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 1.147 / def 1.119 | Atletico Madrid attack 0.994 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.059 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Valencia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Atletico Madrid xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Valencia vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Atletico Madrid?
Valencia 3 - 3 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Valencia vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Valencia vs Atletico Madrid is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 44% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Valencia and Atletico Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Atletico Madrid?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valencia and Atletico Madrid in?
Valencia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valencia's attack at 1.15x the league average against Atletico Madrid's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico Madrid's attack (0.99x) against Valencia's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 12/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.47
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.72
1.18
Atletico Madrid xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
6%
16.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Valencia and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Valencia and 1.18 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valencia's recent record stands at 3W 4D 4L from 11 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 1L across 11 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Atletico Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atletico Madrid by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valencia heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Valencia have managed 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Valencia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Atletico Madrid's away record stands at 3W 1D 1L across 5 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valencia are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.64 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Atletico Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 games (1.18 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 6W 4D 1L in their last 11 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Atletico Madrid's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.60 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Valencia or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Atletico Madrid have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Madrid won 3-0 on 18 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Madrid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Valencia
1
Draws
8
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Atletico Madrid?
From 10 meetings on record, Valencia have won 1, Atletico Madrid have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Valencia 0-2 Atletico Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Valencia, 80% for Atletico Madrid — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Valencia and 80% for Atletico Madrid. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Atletico Madrid?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Valencia's games and 80% of Atletico Madrid's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valencia vs Atletico Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Valencia's matches and 80% of Atletico Madrid's.
Do Valencia and Atletico Madrid tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Atletico Madrid in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valencia and Atletico Madrid share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia and Atletico Madrid finished level at 3-3 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.54 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.18 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Valencia beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atletico Madrid outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 1.15 / defence 1.12 against Atletico Madrid attack 0.99 / defence 1.27, drawn from 12/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 44% | Draw 29% | Atletico Madrid 27%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 64%, Atletico Madrid 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.