Valencia 3-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as Valencia take on Alaves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to Estadio de Mestalla to face Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Friday 27 August 2021 at 21:15 UTC.
Form
Valencia (all games): 1W 1D 0L across 2 La Liga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Valencia have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alaves have collected 0.00 PPG across 2 La Liga outings this season: 0W 0D 2L. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 2.00 in Valencia's favour (2.00 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 0.83 xG and Alaves 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 1.002 / defence 1.039 | Alaves attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.723 / away 0.832. Data: 2 Valencia games / 2 Alaves games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Valencia 31% | Draw 43% | Alaves 26%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 3.23 | Draw 2.33 | Alaves 3.85. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.57. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.57 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Alaves's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 21% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 31% | Draw 43% | Alaves 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 33% | xG Valencia 0.83 / Alaves 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 1.002 / def 1.039 | Alaves attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.723 / away 0.832 • Poisson stance: Draw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Alaves xG
33%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Alaves kick off?
Valencia vs Alaves kicked off at 21:15 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Alaves?
Valencia 3 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Valencia vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Alaves part of?
Valencia vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 31% chance of winning, Alaves a 26% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Valencia and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Alaves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valencia and Alaves in?
Valencia (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D. Alaves (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valencia's attack at 1.00x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.85x) against Valencia's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 22.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.21
43%
2.31
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Valencia xG
Total xG
1.57
0.73
Alaves xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.31
43%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.01
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
11%
9.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.8 | 15.3 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.5%.
How many goals are Valencia and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Valencia and 0.73 for Alaves, a combined total of 1.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valencia come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 1D 0L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D. It's still early in the season for Valencia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 0.00 PPG from 2 outings (0W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Valencia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Alaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valencia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.50 scored and 2.50 conceded.
Defensively: Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Early Season
Alaves
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Alaves in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Alaves have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
Have Valencia or Alaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Alaves in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valencia won 3-0 on 27 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Valencia
2
Draws
4
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Valencia have won 2, Alaves have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Valencia 3-2 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Alaves?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Valencia's recent matches and 50% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Valencia's recent games and 50% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Alaves tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Alaves in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Valencia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Alaves 3-0 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 0.83 xG and Alaves 0.73 xG, a combined 1.57. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Valencia beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 1.00 / defence 1.04 against Alaves attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 31% | Draw 43% | Alaves 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. The actual Valencia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 0%, Alaves 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Valencia arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Valencia scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.