Sevilla 0-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sevilla at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sevilla vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán plays host to Sevilla versus Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Wednesday 11 May 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sevilla's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Sevilla are significantly better at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán than their overall form suggests.
Mallorca (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Mallorca away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Sevilla's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Mallorca's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sevilla 0W, Mallorca 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sevilla half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 51% versus Mallorca 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sevilla 31% | Mallorca 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 2.19 xG and Mallorca 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 1.242 / defence 1.170 | Mallorca attack 0.700 / defence 1.634. League average goals — home 1.080 / away 1.115. Mallorca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.634 — this is suppressing Sevilla's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Sevilla games / 35 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 66% | Draw 20% | Mallorca 14%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Mallorca 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Sevilla (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sevilla at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 70% | Mallorca 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 May 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 66% | Draw 20% | Mallorca 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 54% | xG Sevilla 2.19 / Mallorca 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 1.242 / def 1.170 | Mallorca attack 0.700 / def 1.634 | league avg home 1.080 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Mallorca xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Mallorca kick off?
Sevilla vs Mallorca kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Mallorca?
Sevilla 0 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Sevilla vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Mallorca part of?
Sevilla vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 66% chance of winning, Mallorca a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sevilla and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Mallorca?
Record (1 meetings): Sevilla 0W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 0W.
What form are Sevilla and Mallorca in?
Sevilla (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Mallorca (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sevilla's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (1.63x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.70x) against Sevilla's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
66%
1.52
20%
4.90
14%
7.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Sevilla xG
Total xG
3.11
0.91
Mallorca xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
7.27
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
11%
8.97
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
2%
65.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Sevilla and 0.91 for Mallorca, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Mallorca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Sevilla have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 17W 14D 4L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Mallorca's form line: 8W 8D 19L from 35 games, 0.91 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Sevilla are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mallorca.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sevilla have posted 2.24 PPG from 17 outings (11W 5D 1L).
On the road, Mallorca have gone 2W 2D 13L from 17 away games — 0.47 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sevilla are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.91 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Defensively: Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 17W 14D 4L in their last 35 games (1.86 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 8W 8D 19L in their last 35 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Mallorca away?
Sevilla's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 2.24 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.47 PPG.
Have Sevilla or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Mallorca in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Mallorca go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mallorca won 4-1 on 2 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sevilla have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sevilla
4
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 3, Mallorca have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Mallorca 4-1 Sevilla.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 59%, Mallorca 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sevilla) and 59% (Mallorca). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sevilla keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Mallorca in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Mallorca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Sevilla's games and 53% of Mallorca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sevilla vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Sevilla's matches and 59% of Mallorca's.
Do Sevilla and Mallorca tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sevilla's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla and Mallorca finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 2.19 xG and Mallorca 0.91 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sevilla fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Mallorca landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 1.24 / defence 1.17 against Mallorca attack 0.70 / defence 1.63, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 66% | Draw 20% | Mallorca 14%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 31%, Mallorca 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mallorca's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sevilla arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sevilla (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.